England v New Zealand: Cash in on lacklustre Three Lions at 5/2

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Saturday, 21:00
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England start two-match warm-up

Google England v New Zealand and you'll get updates from the first Test at Lord's. Which is all well and good but we want the latest news ahead of this World Cup warm-up in Florida between two teams that last met in 1991 (England won 2-0).

While still only a friendly, far more eyes will be on Saturday evening's game than were in Wellington 35 years ago as this is the first of England's two build-up matches - they play Costa Rica on Wednesday - before the real stuff begins: a World Cup group showdown with Croatia on June 17.

Thomas Tuchel will try his best to get a good look at his likely starting XI for that Croatia clash but for this one in Miami he'll have to cope without the Arsenal contingent of Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, Eberechi Eze and Noni Madueke, who have been given extra time off after their Champions League final loss.

A reminder that England's World Cup Group L features Croatia, Ghana and Panama.

New Zealand relishing World Cup return

New Zealand last played in a World Cup in 2010 (and only once previously before that) so excitement is high ahead of their opening game against Iran in Group G. The All Whites also take on Egypt and Belgium.

After cruising through qualifying, they've had contrasting fortunes of late.

In March, Darren Bazeley's side beat Chile 4-1 on home soil to record their first ever win against South American opposition. But on Tuesday evening, New Zealand got a wake up call as they were thumped 4-0 by fellow World Cup finalists Haiti.

"We've had a week together as a full squad now to adapt and climatise and I think it's been pretty successful in that sense," said midfielder Marko Stamenic ahead of that game. "I think we're ready for the first test." Hmmm, maybe not.

Friendly results poor for both sides

New Zealand aren't alone in suffering tweaked noses in a friendly international.

Back in March, England played a pair of Wembley friendlies, losing the first 1-0 to Japan and drawing the second 1-1 with Uruguay.

Add in the 3-1 loss to Senegal at the City Ground last June and England have only won one of their last four friendly internationals.

The odds suggest they'll improve that record here and England are just 2/171.12 to bank victory. The Draw is 15/28.50 while New Zealand are 18/119.00.

It's easy to think that New Zealand are genuine minnows after losing 4-0 to Haiti and that England will therefore run up a big number here.

That could be misguided.

New Zealand have had longer to acclimatise than England and handling the heat and humidity for this 4pm local time kick-off is a key factor.

This will be about trying to find rhythm and patterns of play and it would come as no surprise at all if the Three Lions look stodgy and unable to find a spark.

Tuchel will likely make a raft of changes in the second half which will again impact England's hopes of finding any fluidity.

Narrow win the call

The last time England played friendlies to warm up for a World Cup in the Americas, they drew 2-2 with Ecuador and 0-0 with Honduras.

Okay, those June 2014 games were under Roy Hodgson and proved a harbinger for England's miserable results in Brazil.

But they're a reminder that England tend to huff and puff in such situations after a long and intense Premier League season so I'm much more on the side of narrow win than a convincing win.

With England racking up numerous clean sheets under Tuchel - Jordan Pickford went over a year without conceding for his country, an eight-match sequence - that leads us down the scoreline route.

Let's get 1-0 and 2-0 onside by backing England/Under 2.5 Goals at 5/23.50.

Before that loss to Haiti (the shot count was almost identical), New Zealand hadn't lost by more than two goals in matches against decent teams such as Ivory Coast, Ukraine, Poland, Norway, Colombia and Ecuador.

They can continue that against a not fully warmed up England side.

We'll have to wait on team news but Harry Kane to score first combined with England/Under 2.5 Goals pays 15/28.50.

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