Bet of the Day

Sevilla v Roma: Back 10/1 double in final war of attrition

  • Andy Schooler
  • Published on
  • Updated on
  • 2:00 min read
Anthony Taylor, English referee
Anthony Taylor is a good ref for cards punters in Europe

After 18/1, 10/1 and 8/1 winners in the past few days, our football props column has a 10/1 cards double for Wednesday's Europa League final...

  • Sevilla's Gil booked in 3 of last 5

  • Ibanez carded in 11 of 25 starts in 2023

  • Player-card Bet Builder pays north of 10/1


Perhaps I'm being unkind, but I don't see Wednesday's Europa League final in Budapest being cracking entertainment.

Roma boss Jose Mourinho knows how to win finals. He's won all five European ones he's contested and notably four them have seen his side keep a clean sheet.

Defence will likely be his priority again here, particularly given his side's form has been disappointing over the closing weeks of the season - the semi-final, first-leg win over Bayer Leverkusen is Roma's only victory in their last nine games.

Sevilla arrive in much better form. They've been revived since the March arrival of Jose Luis Mendilibar as boss - they've lost just two of 15 under the Spaniard.

Now well clear of relegation danger, they will actually head into the final day of the La Liga season on Sunday with a chance of qualifying for Europe via the league.

For props punters, I'm not sure there's any great value in the shots markets given Roma's likely approach.

This could well be attritional and with that in mind the fouls and cards options look a better call.

Sevilla are the second most-carded team in La Liga this season, while they've been averaging more than three cards per game during their Europa League campaign, which began in the knockout rounds.

Roma aren't too far behind having collected 32 yellows and a red in their 14 EL matches.

There's also a decent ref in charge for cards - England's Anthony Taylor has the whistle and he's shown at least five cards in 23 of his last 36 UEFA club appointments.

Sadly, the team and total cards markets are priced up accordingly.

Over 5.5 cards is just even money, while both sides are odds-on for over 2.5 cards.

Leg 1: Bryan Gil to be shown a card

It's therefore over to the player-card market where I'm tempted to take one from each side in what should be a physical battle.

For Sevilla, Bryan Gil is a tempting price at 3/14.00.

The former Tottenham man was a regular card collector at Valencia and now back in Spain he's back to his old ways with six cards in 23 appearances for Sevilla this season, including three of his last five.

He's committed 2+ fouls in five of his last six starts and will likely have a job to do to prevent Roma wing-back Zeki Celik getting forward.

Leg 2: Roger Ibanez to be shown a card

Meanwhile, Roger Ibanez leads the way for Roma on the card front this season and has been carded in 15 times. In the Europa League, he's been booked in five of 11 starts.

In all competitions in 2023, 11 of 25 starts have seen his name taken.

Those are pretty strong card stats and a player with a propensity for clumsy challenges could be troubled by the Sevilla attack, especially if he is dragged wide to deal with the dribbling of Gil and Lucas Ocampos.

The worry would be that Taylor wants to keep his cards in his pocket as much as possible given the showpiece occasion but these two teams may not allow that and so a Gil-Ibanez double at north of 10/111.00 looks worth a poke.

Back Gil & Ibanez both to be shown a card @ around

21/2

Read Kevin Hatchard's in-depth preview of Sevilla v Roma!

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Column P/L 2022/23

Staked: 315pts
Returned: 381.69pts
P/L: +66.69pts

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Andy Schooler avatar

Andy Schooler

Andy Schooler has been writing about sport for more than 20 years.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.

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