Bet of the Day

Sevilla v Almeria: 15/2 Bet Builder for crunch clash

Sevilla winger Lucas Ocampos is one to back in the fouls market
Lucas Ocampos: Wins fouls, commits fouls

There's a big battle in store at the bottom of La Liga on Tuesday and our football props column is keen to delve into the disciplinary markets.

  • Sevilla 2+ cards in every game this season

  • Ocampos v Akieme looks a key battle

  • Back 15/2 Bet Builder in Seville


Sevilla v Almeria
Tuesday 26 September, 18:00
Live on Viaplay Sports 2

While the question 'how much do they really want to win?' will be relevant to many of Tuesday night's Carabao Cup ties, it's not one which needs asking when it comes to this clash in La Liga.

Two of the bottom four meet at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan, the teams having collected just one win between them so far.

Leg 1: Sevilla over 1.5 cards

In short, expect a competitive game between two teams who were among the top five for cards received in 2022/23 with the referee, Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez, also one of the top carders - he had the third-best yellow card average (5.65) last season and showed 12 reds in his 17 league matches.

We'll therefore start by putting Sevilla down for 2+ cards, something they've landed in all seven of their games so far this season in all competitions.

Leg 2: Sergio Akieme 1+ foul

Turning to the fouls markets, I like the look of what is set to be a key battle down the Sevilla right.

Lucas Ocampos has long been one of La Liga's most-fouled players, while the Argentine isn't shy of a foul or two himself.

He's set to go up against Sergio Akieme, who immediately looks good at 8/13 for 1+ foul.

Leg 3: Lucas Ocampos 2+ fouls

I'll also happily add Ocampos for 2+ fouls, something he's landed in four of his last six appearances.

His last two home games have seen four fouls on both occasions.

Leg 4: Sergio Akieme 1+ shot

Finally, Akieme for 1+ shot helps produce a nicely-priced Bet Builder.

Despite their position at the bottom of the table, Almeria are actually ranked third for shots taken and Akieme will look to get forward down the left.

He's scored in two of his last three games and had a shot in four of six this season.

The four-fold pays out at north of 7/1 although it would be amiss of me not to mention the potential pitfall given what we saw last night at Coventry.

Back Sevilla over 1.5 cards, Ocampos 2+ fouls and Akieme 1+ foul & 1+ shot @ around 15/28.50

Bet now

The introduction of Joel Latibeaudiere, who I'd expected to start, as an 89th-minute substitute ruined what looked like a winning bet and highlighted how knowing the starting line-ups can be crucial in bets such as things.

The main concern I have here is that Ocampos could be switched to the left, as he sometimes is, so it seems advisable to check the team news around an hour before kick-off.

While that wouldn't necessarily be a deal-breaker, it would weaken the chances of the bet winning.

EFL Cup tips: Dan Fitch with bets for this week's R3 ties

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Column P/L 2023/24

Staked: 51pts
Returned: 63.64pts
P/L: +12.64pts

2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts

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