Sao Paulo v Palmeiras: Back 5/1 derby double in Brazil

• Red card in 6 of last 13 meetings

• BTTS 'no' landed in 6 of 8 Copa last-16 ties

• Bet Builder double pays just shy of 5/1

Sao Paulo v Palmeiras
Wednesday 5 July, 23:30

This may not be the 'primary' Sao Paulo derby but things can still be expected to be feisty in Brazil's biggest city on Wednesday night.

While Palmeiras' bitterest rivals have traditionally been Corinthians, this season Sao Paulo have emerged as their closest challengers in the city - both sides sit in the top seven of Serie A with Corinthians down in 16th, just outside the relegation zone.

This match is the first leg of a Copa do Brasil quarter-final so there's plenty at stake and it's fair to say neither side will want to be taking a heavy deficit across the city for the return game.

Leg 1: Red card in the match

A competitive contest therefore awaits and 21/10 about there being a red card looks big when you consider the recent history of the fixture.

Over the past two years, six of the 13 derbies have featured a sending off, including last month's league clash.

Referee Braulio da Silva Machado is thrown into this derby environment for the first time and looks a decent appointment.

Of the regular officials, he led Serie A for cards shown last season, while so far in 2023 he's averaging more than 5.5 cards per game.

Leg 2: Both teams to score 'no'

For the second part of our bet, both teams to score 'no' looks a good price at 9/10.

These are two of the best defences in Serie A and with another leg to come, this game can be expected to be tight.

Both teams to score has only landed in four of Palmeiras' last 12 games, while just one of Sao Paulo's last six have seen this occur.

The case for the 'no' option is further strengthened when you look at how this competition has played out.

The first legs of the last-16 ties saw just two of eight games land the BTTS bet, while last season none of the quarter-finals saw both teams score in the first leg.

The double pays just under 5/1.

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