Friday Football Tips: Back the card collectors at 11/1

Mehdi Leris, Sampdoria
Mehdi Leris: Serie A's most-carded player this season

Only half of Thursday's card double came in but Andy Schooler is prepared to take a similar shot in Serie A on Friday in our football props column.

  • Sampdoria fifth for fouls & second most-fouled in Serie A

  • Back 5/4 data-led 1+ fouls Bet Builder

  • 11/1 cards bet features two of Italy's most-carded men


  • After another bet went down which had looked so good in the early stages, I took a look at Friday's fixture list and winced.

    In terms of those offering significant in terms of props markets, it's full of games which mean very little.

    After much procrastination - always a by-product of a bad run - I plumped for Friday's Serie A game which sees already-relegated Sampdoria host Sassuolo.

    Now, clearly there are reasons to suggest a game with really nothing at stake might buck the normal trends but it's worth noting that Sampdoria are Serie A's most carded team, have committed the fifth most fouls and are also the second most fouled side in the division.

    Bet 1, Leg 1: Bram Nuytinck 1+ foul

    With this in mind, I scoured the teams' fouls data and put together a three-legged Bet Builder at odds-against. Based on previous evidence, it stands a great chance.

    For the hosts, centre-back Bram Nuytinck has committed a foul in nine of his last 10 starts and gets the nod.

    Bet 1, Leg 2: Rogerio 1+ foul

    Turning to the visitors, left-back Rogerio has delivered on the 1+ fouls bet in 15 of his last 19 starts.

    He'll likely be up against the feisty Mehdi Leris - more on him below.

    Bet 1, Leg 3: Matheus Henrique 1+ foul

    Meanwhile, Matheus Henrique has delivered at least one foul in eight of his last nine. The Brazilian will feature in a midfield area involving Samp's Tomas Rincon, a player who commits and draws plenty of fouls himself.

    The treble pays around 5/42.25.

    Back Nuytinck, Rogerio & Matheus Henrique 1+ fouls each

    5/4

    Bet 2, Leg 1: Mehdi Leris to be shown a card

    However, I was also intrigued by the cards market, given the knowledge that this game will likely feature two of Serie A's most-carded players.

    Samp's Leris has a league-leading 13 yellows to his name this season in 30 appearances.

    Filter down to starts only and it's 12 in 27. Immediately 9/43.25 looks decent.

    Bet 2, Leg 2: Maxime Lopez to be shown a card

    Meanwhile, the visitors' Maxime Lopez has been booked on 11 occasions. In his 24 starts, he's been carded in 10 of them yet he's 11/43.75 here.

    Both men to be carded is on offer at close to 11/112.00 which just seems too big given their records.

    The appointment of Francesco Meraviglia as referee clinches it for me.

    It will be his first Serie A game - he's averaged a little over four cards per game in Serie B this season - and as with any maiden match one suspects he'll be keen to ensure the rules are administered to the letter.

    Given the 'form' of Leris and Lopez, that may well lead to them finding their way into the book.

    The suggested staking plan is two thirds on the fouls bet and one third on the cards play.

    Back Leris & Lopez both to be shown a card

    11/1

Column P/L 2022/23

Staked: 310pts
Returned: 350.56pts
P/L: +40.56pts

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