Montenegro v Serbia: Turn focus on Vlahovic

• Serbia have the edge in derby clash

• Vlahovic has 8 goals in 11 international starts

• 2+ cards for Serbia in 23 of last 24 outside homeland

Montenegro v Serbia
Monday 27 March, 19:45

There's a Balkan derby in Euro 2024 qualifying on Monday when Montenegro host Serbia.

The two nations played as one until 2007 before going their separate ways, although unlike many countries in the region, relations remain good - this fixture doesn't have the war-laced history of, say, a game between Serbia and Croatia.

Solid starts

Both sides got off to a solid, if unspectacular, start to their campaign on Friday with Montenegro winning 1-0 in Bulgaria and Serbia seeing off Lithuania 2-0 on home soil.

For this game, it is the Serbs who look worthy favourites.

They were part of the World Cup jamboree in Qatar before Christmas, albeit they exited in the group stage following a thrilling final game against Switzerland.

Prior to that, they had earned promotion to the top tier of the Nations League, winning four and losing only one in a group containing Norway, Slovenia and Sweden.

Montenegro, on the other hand, only just avoided relegation to League C, finishing third in their pool behind Bosnia and Finland.

Serbia have now won seven of their last 11 games, their two defeats in that run coming against Brazil and the Swiss at the World Cup.

They can use their extra class to triumph here, just as they did in the 2018/19 Nations League campaign when they did the double over their neighbours.

Aleksandar Mitrovic, enjoying another decent season with Fulham, is their star name and boasting a record of 52 goals in 80 internationals - very similar to Harry Kane's figures - he warrants serious respect.

However, perhaps the better value lies in backing his strike partner, Dusan Vlahovic.

He hasn't enjoyed the best of spells of late at Juventus but he's still hit 11 goals for the Italians this season, while his record for his country is also excellent.

Vlahovic has 11 goals in 20 appearances, while filter things down to games in which he's started and he has eight in 11, finding the net in seven of those matches.

I'm therefore happy to include the Juve man to score at any time, even given the fact he rarely completes the full 90 minutes.

To push our Bet Builder from 2/1 to around 16/5, let's add in Serbia to have over 1.5 cards.

Statistically this looks a very strong bet with the Serbs having landed it in 23 of their last 24 competitive internationals outside their homeland.

They also managed this in both previous meetings with the Montenegrins, who, for the record, racked up seven cards across the two aforementioned Nations League games.

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