San Lorenzo v Talleres
Monday 25 July
20:30 BST kick-off
A mid-table clash in the Argentinan Premier Division may not immediately catch the eye, but San Lorenzo v Talleres will do just fine for Monday's best bet.
I say mid-table, San Lorenzo are actually up in 12th while Talleres are 23rd, but in the bumper 28-team league it looks relative mid-table-ish.
Talleres are only this high because they earned just their second win of the season last time out, but that win tally in fact matches San Lorenzo's for this term as they've also only tasted victory twice.
The joint league-best six draws for San Lorenzo provides the four-point gap between the sides, one that's easily closed in such a tight division.
The hosts are slight favourites for the win, but while they're closely matched overall they could hardly be more different in terms of goals - with San Lorenzo's home games averaging 3.4 goals per match while none of Talleres' nine games this season have edged over 2.5 goals.
San Lorenzo are unbeaten at home but have won just once, drawing the other four with both teams scoring in all of them - so the big question is can a team with just two goals in four away games so far benefit from their leaky defence?
The answer for us is no, and while the draw is very tempting, San Lorenzo did jump out to a handy lead last time before getting pegged back - I don't think a team like Talleres are capable of doing that.
A San Lorenzo win and under 2.5 goals makes the most appeal in the match odds markets.
So not too many goals then, but when they come, the top scorer in the league Adam Bareiro has to be the man to find the net.
The Paraguayan has scored seven in nine this season, and has scored in his last six games for San Lorenzo.
He's juicy odds to find the net again given that form, and although those types of runs are hard to keep going - we're backing him to make it a lucky seven in a row.