Monaco v Benfica: No Greek tragedy if you back red-hot striker

• Benfica won 3-2 at Monaco in league phase

• Visitors scoring freely under Lage

• Pavlidis a value play at 3.1511/5 

Monaco v Benfica
Wednesday 12 February, 20:00
Live on Discovery+

Viktor Gyokeres' return to fitness wasn't as complete as Portuguese media had suggested, but at least his sub's role in a 3-0 home defeat to Borussia Dortmund last night saw our stake returned after a rather bizarre game that Sporting dominated for the first 50 minutes.

We'll switch to the principality of Monaco now, and our focus is the Stade Louis II. Monaco are up against Benfica, and we'll back an in-form striker to find the net.

Greek forward Vangelis Pavlidis has the distinction of having netted a hat-trick inside the first half-hour of a Champions League game against Barcelona, only to then lose the match 5-4. The former AZ goal-getter has netted 12 goals this season in all competitions, including goals in four of his last five matches. At the weekend, Pavlidis scored twice in the first 15 minutes as Benfica beat Moireirense 3-2.

Benfica have been cutting loose under Bruno Lage, who is back at the club for a second spell. Lage is attack-minded (Wolves fans may not see it that way), and Benfica have scored 20 goals across their last seven matches.

Monaco were looking like potential title challengers at one stage under Adi Hutter, but they were outclassed by runaway leaders PSG in a 4-1 defeat at the Parc des Princes at the weekend, leaving them fourth in the division. Adi Hütter's men have won just five of their last 16 matches in all competitions, and across those games they have managed just three clean sheets.

Monaco have the worst defensive record in Ligue 1's top seven, and goalkeeper Radoslaw Majecki had a nightmare against PSG. Indeed, the Polish keeper has a negative post-shot xG differential, which basically means he is conceding more often than the data says he should. Add in an injury to defender Wilfried Singo and a suspension for Christian Mawissa, and Benfica should be able to create lots of opportunities.

Benfica won 3-2 at Monaco in the league phase in November, and Pavlidis was on target that night. We can back him to score here at 3.1511/5, and given his current form and how leaky Monaco have been, I think that's a sensible play. Pavlidis is on penalty duty and has looked razor-sharp since the turn of the year.

Now read Kev's Celtic v Bayern preview here!