Football Bet of the Day: Back Swedes to avoid defeat against regional rivals

• Molde have lost last three games

• Both teams without a point in UEL

• Little justification for hosts to be odds-on

Molde v Häcken
Thursday 26 October, 17:45

Although Barcelona got the win they wanted last night against Shakhtar Donetsk, Joao Felix didn't quite deliver the goal we needed, and it didn't help that he limped off injured well before the end. We'll take that one on the chin and move on.

We'll switch to the Europa League now, and a Scandinavian showdown between Norwegian champions Molde and last season's Swedish table-toppers Häcken.

Molde are well off the pace in the Eliteserien title race. They are fifth in the table, a full 14 points adrift of the leaders Bodo Glimt. They have had a sobering run of results recently, suffering a sequence of three straight defeats against Bayer Leverkusen, Bodo Glimt and Brann. Two of those defeats were on home soil. Indeed, Molde have won just five of their last 15 matches in all competitions.

Häcken are making a better fist of their title defence. They are third in the Allsvenskan, six points behind the leaders Elfsborg. However, they have made a disappointing start to life in the UEL group stage, losing 4-0 to Bayer Leverkusen in Germany before going down 1-0 at home to Qarabag. Over the last 15 games they are on better form than Molde though, having won eight of those matches.

I just can't see why Molde would be 1.84/5 to win this game. I concede they have far more recent European experience as a club than Häcken, but they are in poor form, and have lost both of their UEL games so far. I'm happy to get the draw and the away win on our side by simply laying Molde at 1.84/5.