Malta v Italy: Humbled visitors need to bounce back

• Malta regularly pick up cards

• Italy should dominate

Malta v Italy
Sunday 26 March, 18:45

Scotland fitted the bill yesterday, as they swept aside Cyprus 3-0 and Che Adams got the shot on target we needed. We'll look for a perfect week as we visit Malta.

Gritty Malta keen to compete

Given that Malta was once effectively an Italian colony, and that Italian was for many years the official language, there may be some split loyalties on Sunday in Ta'Qali. Malta won't do the Azzurri any favours though, and they showed in their recent 2-1 loss in North Macedonia that they can be awkward opponents.

Indeed, you have to go back to 2021 for the last time Malta lost an international by more than one goal. At home last year they beat San Marino and Israel, and only lost 1-0 to the Republic of Ireland.

However, the Maltese record in qualifiers is pretty awful. They claimed just five points from ten qualifiers ahead of the World Cup, and in the qualifiers for EURO 2020 they lost nine out of ten.

Yannick Yankam scored on his debut against North Macedonia, and will hope to retain his place.

Mancini needs a show of quality

Leading his country to glory in EURO 2020 was always going to give Roberto Mancini a certain degree of protection as Italy boss, but he is perhaps stretching that goodwill a little thin. Failure to qualify for the World Cup was bad enough, but a first home defeat to England for decades made for a dreadful start to the EURO 2024 qualifying campaign.

Italy were abject in the first half of that 2-1 defeat in Naples. They were bullied in midfield, lacked a cutting edge and were defensive shaky. Things improved after the break (they could hardly have gotten worse) but overall this was a substandard display from a team that had actually topped its group in the Nations League last year.

The Azzurri's away games in the Nations League were a bit of a mixed bag in truth. They drew 0-0 away to England, lost 5-2 in Germany, but won 2-0 in Hungary. In the World Cup qualifiers, Mancini's European champions kept four clean sheets in four games, but were crucially held to two goalless draws.

Leeds forward Willy Gnonto could get a start after impressing against England as a sub, while Argentina-born striker Mateo Retegui should keep his place after scoring on his debut. Nicolo Barella and Leonardo Bonucci are both out injured.

Aggressive Malta to set us on our way

We'll use the Sportsbook's Bet Builderr here to back Italy to win, Over 1.5 Home Cards and Over 5.5 Away Corners at 2.01/1. Malta picked up four bookings in North Macedonia, and their physical approach has seen them collect at least two cards in their last five internationals. Italy should win the game and should dominate possession, so I don't think it's asking a lot for them to rack up six corners or more.