Monday Football Tips: Magyars can book Finals spot

Hungary v Italy
Monday 26 September, 19:45
Live on Premier Sports 1

At the start of June, you'd have got good odds on Hungary winning this group - one also featuring England and Germany - but the Magyars head into the final matchday knowing a draw would secure a place in the Nations League Finals.

They deserve great credit for beating England twice and taking four points from a possible six against the Germans but they will undoubtedly want to finish things off here and progress to a shot at the trophy next summer.

After Hungary ended Germany's Finals chance with a 1-0 win in Leipzig on Friday night, it's a straight shoot-out between them and Italy for top spot.

The good thing for Italy is qualification is still in their hands too but that's about where the good news stops for the European champions and it's hard to justify odds-on quotes about them grabbing the victory they require here.

Since winning Euro 2020 at Wembley last summer, they've played 14 competitive games and won only four.

Last time on the road they were thrashed 5-2 by Germany, while during their disastrous World Cup qualifying campaign they failed to beat Northern Ireland in Belfast, a result which sent them towards the play-offs and their subsequent defeat to North Macedonia.

It's all gone downhill very quickly for Mancini and co and hopes of a much-needed boost have been hit further by a host of injuries for this international window.

Marco Verratti and Lorenzo Pellegrini were among those to withdraw, while Leonardo Spinazzola, so impressive at the Euros, didn't even make the squad in the first place - he's struggled to regain form following his Achilles tendon rupture.

In addition, centre forward Ciro Immobile missed Friday's win over England through injury, although Italy are doing all they can to get him fit for this must-win contest.

They may well need him.

A well-organised Hungary side have kept three clean sheets in five games and know another here takes them through. They've also scored in all five group matches so far.

Dominik Szoboszlai will again be their main creative force, while expect captain Adam Szalai to put in a big shift in what he says will be his final international game.

I think there's more than enough to like about Hungary managing to get the result they need and they look worth taking, with the draw, in the double-chance market at 4/5.

In terms of props plays, it's not hard to see there being plenty of shots - whatever the score reaches, one of these sides is always going to need to score.

However, the layers aren't giving anything away in the team shots markets so it's over to the player shots ones.

Here, Giovanni di Lorenzo is of interest.

Italy switched to a 3-5-2 system against England, matching them up formation wise, and they are expected to repeat the trick.

Di Lorenzo played as a wing-back on Friday and duly managed one shot to continue a good run on the shooting front - he's managed at least one in six of his last eight games for Napoli.

Given Italy's need for a goal here, I'll happily put him down for 1+ shot here.

Together with the Hungary-draw double chance, that makes a two-legged Bet Builder which pays 9/5.

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