Football Bet of the Day: Back flying Finns to make it through

• HJK's home form is excellent, and they are scoring freely

• Visitors Arda have been struggling for months

• Hosts can win big at odds-against

HJK v Arda
Thursday 31 July, 17:00

They made us work for it, but Viktoria Plzen found a way to rescue their Champions League tie against Servette last night, and to give us an odds-against winner in the process. The Czech side were 1-0 down on the night and 2-0 behind on aggregate, but they eventually won the second leg 3-1 to progress.

We'll head to Finland now, because HJK Helsinki are in Conference League qualifying action against Bulgarian side Arda, and I fancy them to make it through with room to spare. The first leg ended 0-0, and HJK have the home form to secure victory.

It's worth noting HJK's incredible comeback in the previous round against Faroese side NSI. The Helsinki team were 4-0 down from the first leg, but produced a 5-0 win in the home game to turn the tie on its head.

After a shaky start to the season, HJK are on the charge. They have won four of their last six games in all competitions, and on home soil it's seven wins from the last nine games.

Unlike HJK, Bulgarian side Arda are only just starting their season, and they have claimed a single point from their first two league matches of the campaign. If you look at last season, Arda made it into the championship round of the campaign, but then really struggled. The Kardshali-based team failed to win any of their final eight matches of the league season.

HJK had to batten down the hatches in the first leg, and only had two goal attempts, but I'm expecting them to be much more enterprising on home soil. I'll back them -1.0 on the Asian Handicap here at 5/42.25 - six of their last seven home wins have been by two goals or more.

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