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Hearts v Hibs: Expect derby card chaos at 10/1

Hearts' Tynecastle Stadium
Tynecastle will see a crucial match on Saturday afternoon

There's much at stake in Saturday's Edinburgh derby - expect a battle an a card-strewn game, says Andy Schooler.

  • Europe and pride at stake in Edinburgh

  • 10 cards in two of last five derbies

  • Cards-based Bet Builder pays 10/1


Hearts v Hibs
Saturday 27 May, 12:30

Any derby on the final day is a rarity, never mind one with a lot of stake, but that's the situation in Edinburgh on Saturday lunchtime.

Hearts lead Hibs by two points in the table but, fresh from victory over champions Celtic in midweek, the Hibees know a win at Tynecastle would see them finish above their great rivals in fourth and clinch a European spot in the process.

Leg 1: Over 5.5 cards

In short, this matters and a fiery battle looks likely - cue cards.

There were 10 shown in last month's clash at Easter Road, the second time in five meetings that's occurred.

The make-ups in full since Hearts returned to the Premiership at the start of last season have been: 10-7-5-4-10-4-6-2.

While the referee Don Robertson could be better - he's averaging under four per game across the season as a whole - his three previous appearances in this fixture have produced card counts of 7-6-5, the first of those figures coming earlier this season.

Given what's at stake, I'll happily kick-off our Bet Builder with over 5.5 cards.

Leg 2: Jake Doyle-Hayes to be shown a card

I think it also makes sense to look for likely bad boys on each side and I'll start with the visitors.

Jake Doyle-Hayes looks set for another start in the midfield and he's collected six cards in 18 appearances this season.

Filter things down to starts only and he's been booked in four of eight in the Premiership. Against Hearts, it's two in four, including an early caution in last month's game.

Leg 3: Nathaniel Atkinson to be shown a card

For the hosts, Nathaniel Atkinson looks the standout at 5/23.50.

The Australian right-back has eight cards in 25 appearances this season - and four in 13 starts.

He's been booked in his last two against Hibs and here is set to go up against the in-form Elie Youan, who comes in fresh off two goals against Celtic in midweek.

Atkinson is likely to get the nod at right-back over Michael Smith, a man who has been mentioned on these pages in the past.

Smith has been booked in seven of his 16 starts in this derby yet is 4/15.00 for a card here - if he's a surprise inclusion, make sure you back him, especially given this is the final game of his Hearts career.

He'll probably get on at some stage so an in-play opportunity may arise.

Back over 5.5 cards and both Doyle-Hayes & Atkinson to be shown a card @ around

10/1

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Column P/L 2022/23

Staked: 311pts
Returned: 350.56pts
P/L: +39.56pts

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