"Filter things down to his last eight matches and de Moraes has sent someone off in five of them. Throw in the two teams and I think there’s some value in 9/5 (for a red card)."
Our in-form football props column is heading back to Brazil on Friday with a 9/2 shot for the night's sole Serie A game.
Brazilian football has been kind to this column this week so we're sticking in that country on Friday to focus on the sole Serie A game.
First up, expect cards.
Internacional have picked up a league-high 45 yellow cards in their opening 13 games, as well as one red.
Coritiba have collected 31 yellows but, significantly, also five reds - only bottom side Juventude have had more players sent off this season.
In addition, both sides are in the top four when you look at cards shown to their opponents.
And finally, to cap it off, we have a good referee for cards.
Jefferson Ferreira de Moraes has only taken charge of five Serie A games this season but he' already shown 25 yellows and three reds.
Across all competitions in 2022, the figures are 82 yellows, seven reds in 16 matches.
The market is rather clued up to the potential for cards but one angle I like is the chance of a red card, particularly given the choice of official.
Filter things down to his last eight matches and de Moraes has sent someone off in five of them. Throw in the two teams and I think there's some value in 9/5.
That's the first leg of our Bet Builder.
Moving on to the shots markets, I'm going to add Internacional right-back Fabricio Bustos to have at least one shot.
He's managed this in 10 of 19 games this season and has hit five across his last two games.
Here he faces a pretty leaky defence - Coritiba are in the top five for shots conceded and only Juventude have let in more goals so far this term.
That brings the price to just over 9/2, which I'm happy with.
For those prepared to wait for the team news, I'm also going to mention Coritiba's Egidio.
He hasn't played much of late but could return to the starting XI here as regular left-back Diego Porfirio is suspended.
Egidio has hit at least one shot in four of his five starts this season and 2+ in three of those games.
The prices for this game are 10/11 and 5/1 respectively with the former taking the Bet Builder into double figures if you are so inclined.
England v Netherlands: Preview of Friday's women's friendly