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Friday Football Tips: Celta star Mendez offers card value

Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos
Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos booked Mendez in September

"He’s got six cards in 16 appearances this term but look back further and you find he’s now been carded in 14 of his last 36."

Back Mendez to be shown a card @ 11/4

Our football props column has an 11/4 anytime card bet for Friday's La Liga game - one which has landed 14 times in the player's last 36 games...

With games in La Liga averaging just over five cards per game this season, it's usually worth a good look at the card markets.

This weekend's opening fixture features two teams in the top nine for yellow cards received (Mallorca have also collected a league-high four reds), while it promises to be competitive given the fact that just three points separate the pair in the table.

Over 60 booking points - that's 10 for a yellow and 25 for a red - is odds-on but the value looks to lie in the anytime card market.

It's no surprise to see the sides' midfield enforcers, Iddrisu Baba and Renato Tapia, no bigger than 17/10 here. After all, Baba has six cards in 15 appearances this season; Tapia six in 14.

But there's another player who is already on six cards for the campaign, who is available at 11/4, and he's the one to back.

Celta's Brais Mendez is a forward which looks the only reason he's available at such a price because his card stats over the past year are as strong as virtually anyone on the pitch.

Yes, he's got six cards in 16 appearances this term but look back further and you find he's now been carded in 14 of his last 36.

That stat gives an implied probability for an anytime card of 39% but odds of 11/4 actually make it a 27% chance.

Mendez also sits sixth in La Liga's player fouls table.

Throw in the other factors already mentioned which suggest there's every chance this game features plenty of cards, and 11/4 looks a good bet.

Of course, the referee is vital to that and in Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, we do admittedly have someone 'carding' just under the league average.

However, on the plus side he booked Mendez in their only previous meeting this season - when Celta met Cadiz in September, Mendez was one of three bookings for Vigo. And in Escuderos' only game involving Celta last season, he showed their players four yellows and a red.

In short, there's plenty to like about the 11/4 being offered about Mendez finding his way into the notebook once more.

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Column P/L 2021/22

Staked: 113pts
Returned: 144.82pts
P/L: +31.82pts

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