France v Morocco: Champions to finally subdue Atlas Lions

• Morocco have beaten Belgium, Portugal and Spain

• Griezmann and Mbappe on excellent form

• Defensive injuries could hurt North Africans

France v Morocco
Wednesday 14 December, 19:00
Live on BBC One

Morocco have been the story of this World Cup. An unheralded coach took over a fractured group of players just months before the tournament, but he moulded those disparate materials into something wonderfully effective. Thousands of Moroccan fans have supported their nation with verve, noise and pride, and the Atlas Lions are the first African nation in history to reach the semi-finals of the World Cup. Belgium, Spain and Portugal have all been defeated by Walid Regragui's side, and none of them managed to score a single goal against a rock-solid side.

Morocco have been a team of heroes. Yassine Bounou has been outstanding in goal, Romain Saiss has held together the back line with distinction, while Noussair Mazraoui and Achraf Hakimi have pace and energy at full-back. Sofyan Amrabat has been a warrior at the base of midfield, Hakim Ziyech and Sofiane Boufal have worked incredibly hard to cover their full-backs and spruce up the counter-attack, and Youssef El-Nesyri scored a magnificent headed winner against Portugal.

I backed Portugal against Morocco because I wondered if injuries were catching up with the North Africans, and although I was wrong that time, I do think this is finally the end of the road. Mazraoui, Saiss and Nayef Aguerd are injured or at least doubtful, which is basically three quarters of the first-choice back four. Against France, those gaps will be hard to fill.

France rode their luck against England, but they remain an excellent unit with a savvy coach in Didier Deschamps. Kylian Mbappé will keep his good friend and PSG teammate Hakimi very busy, and I believe Antoine Griezmann has been one of the tournament's most impressive performers. The Atletico Madrid maestro has played in a deeper role for Les Bleus, and he can unlock a Morocco side that works hard to stop players operating between the lines. Oliver Giroud's movement and physicality can punish that injury-hit defence, and Ousmane Dembélé can terrorise back-up left-back Yahya Attiat-Allah.

Maybe I'm falling into the same trap again, but I'll use the Bet Builder to back France to win, Under 3.5 Goals and Mbappé to have at least one shot on target at 2.226/5.