Football Bet of the Day: Quiet night for England and Italy

Italy v England
Friday 19:45 (Live on Channel 4)

In Warsaw last night, the Oranje took down the Eagles 2-0 and denied Lewandowski the goal we needed from him.

We're in Milan today as Italy host England in a repeat of last year's European Championship final. That showpiece game finished 1-1 and we reckon there could be a similar result at the San Siro this evening.

Both teams have been trending downwards ever since last year's meeting at Wembley. England have failed to score from open play in four Nations League games this year - though Harry Kane did manage a late penalty equaliser against Germany in June. The Three Lions are W0-D2-L2 - achieving draws with Germany and Italy, but losing twice to Hungary.

Gareth Southgate might be grateful that his charges are facing a somewhat experimental Italy side tonight. That's mainly because the Italians failed to qualify for this year's World Cup, so they're reduced to building for the future already.

Some of Roberto Mancini's changes might also be a response to June's 5-2 thrashing in Germany. On home turf, though, the Azzurri tends to keep things much tighter. They are W3-D5-L1 since the Nations League started in 2018, with 6/9 matches finishing with Under 2.5 Goals.

England are W3-D3-L3 away from home in this competition, but haven't won on any of their last four road trips (D2-L2). Seven of those nine matches have stayed Under 2.5 Goals - including all of the most recent six.

There's a £2 free Bet Builder for all Sportsbook customers on offer today.

We'll take advantage by backing the draw and Under 2.5 Goals at 3.3258/25. For a longer shot, four of those five draws in Italy's Nations League home record were 1-1 - which is a 7.06/1 Correct Score shot over on the Exchange.