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34 goals in 7 Belgium home games
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Israel scored 7 in 4 on road in Nations League
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Back +3.5 Goals
Belgium v Israel
Friday 19:45
In Portugal last night, the hosts beat Croatia 2-1 to give us a goals winner that locks in our profit for the week.
We're staying with the Nations League today as Belgium play Israel in Group A2, which also contains France and Italy. This looks to be the most winnable game in the group for the Red Devils, who start as heavy favourites.
In Germany this summer, Belgium's four Euro 2024 appearances produced just four goals in total, but their Nations League home games have been quite different in recent years. Since 2020, seven such matches have produced 34 goals at a rate of almost five goals a game. Both teams scored in all but one of the games (a 2-0 win over England in 2020).
This match is being played behind closed doors in Hungary because of security concerns, but Belgium's approach should still be attacking. Romelu Lukaka and Leandro Trossard are absent, but Domenico Tedesco's hosts still have the talent to unlock the visitors. Manchester City team-mates Jeremy Doku and Kevin De Bruyne both look set to start.
Since 2020, Israel have played four Nations League away matches. They have been against weaker opposition (Slovakia, Czech Republic, Albania, Iceland) but Israel have found the net in 3/4, with the same fraction reaching Over 2.5 Goals. The price on Over 2.5 Goals in this one is short, but we're ready to take a punt on today's game going even higher.
Five of Belgium's seven previous Nations League home games have delivered Over 3.5 Goals and it's on offer at an odds-against price today.