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Genoa have netted in 13/16 at home
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Cagliari have scored in 8/12 away
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Genoa v Cagliari
Monday 19:45 (Live on TNT Sports 1)
Dammit, Darmstadt. In the Bundesliga 2 yesterday, Kev's boys conceded in the 90th minute to lose 1-0 and his bet went down with them.
We start in Italy, where 12th-placed Genoa host 14th-placed Cagliari in Serie A tonight. The home side look pretty safe, but Claudio Ranieri's visitors are only three points above the drop zone with four rounds of the season to go - plus this game in hand.
Promoted for this season, Alberto Gilardino's Genoa are an even W5-D6-L5 on their own patch. They've netted in all but three of those games, including 7/7 hosting bottom-half teams like Cagliari. BTTS was the right bet in 4/7 of those games.
Cagliari won the reverse fixture 2-1 in November, but are just W1-D5-L10 on the road. Last time out, the islanders managed a creditable 2-2 draw at champions Inter. They've scored on 8 of their last 12 away days, with BTTS landing in 7/12. At an odds-against price, that's our bet on this one.