Finland v Northern Ireland: Hosts can sneak a win

• Finland have kept clean sheets in 2/2 Group H home wins
  

• 5/6 Northern Ireland defeats have been 1-0

• Read more about Safer Gambling Week here
  

Finland v Northern Ireland
Friday 17:00 (Live on Viaplay Sports 1)

In Cyprus yesterday, Spain cruised out to a 3-0 lead within half an hour. Then they stalled. The hosts nicked a consolation and a 3-1 result means our handicap bet went down.

We're in Helsinki today for the Group H clash between Finland and Northern Ireland. The Finns (W4-D0-L4) are headed for the Euro 2024 playoffs, while the visitors are going nowhere once qualifying is over.

Northern Ireland are W2-D0-L6 and the only team they've avoided defeat against is San Marino. Five of those six defeats have come by a 1-0 scoreline and we're ready to take a punt on that in the Correct Score market today.

Finland, who won the reverse fixture 1-0 in Belfast, are hardly in scintillating form themselves. After losing their last three in Group H, Markku Kanerva's men need to build momentum ahead of the playoffs.

Despite only going W2-D0-L2 at home in Group H, they've only conceded three times across those four games and look capable of locking out today's visitors.

Visiting coach Michael O'Neill could even make changes for this one, as he begins to build for the 2026 World Cup. Either way, the Irish look short on firepower and the Finland Win to Nil is another option if you want to cover some bigger home wins.

But with Finland's main man Teemu Pukki having only scored once in eight Group H appearances so far, we're focusing on a tighter game and the 1-0 scoreline that has been Northern Ireland's downfall so often recently.

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Find Dan Fitch's tips for all of Friday's Euro 2024 qualifiers here