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Farense scoring freely despite lowly position
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Benfica drained by punishing schedule
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Farense v Benfica
Monday 22 April, 20:15
A famous name saved the day for our Tobias last night, as Daniel Maldini (yes, Paolo's boy) scored a last-gasp consolation in Monza's 2-1 home defeat to Atalanta, taking the game over the 2.5 goals line and giving TG an odds-against winner.
We'll go in search of goals too, but this time in Portugal. Benfica haven't totally given up on trying to retain their Primeira Liga title, but they are ten points behind their city rivals Sporting, and must win at Farense to retain any hope of a remarkable comeback. That should lead to an open game, and I think both teams can find the net.
17 of Benfica's last 30 games have seen both teams score, and they have kept just three clean sheets in their last ten away matches in all competitions. Although they have the best defensive record in the division, I think tiredness could play a part here for Roger Schmidt's men - they had a draining Europa League exit on penalties at Marseille on Thursday, and they have already played five games in April.
So can Farense do their part and score? Well, they certainly don't lack motivation, as they are just three points above the relegation playoff spot. The Lions of Faro have scored in 11 of their last 12 league games, including matches against Sporting, Porto and Braga.
At 1.84/5, I think BTTS is a fair price.