Bet of the Day

Everton v Luton: A Marvelous fouls bet at Goodison

Midfielder Marvelous Nakamba has been racking up the fouls for Luton in the Premier League
Marvelous Nakamba has some great fouls numbers this season

Our football props column has dug out a couple of value bets for Saturday's Premier League showdown between Everton and Luton...

  • Nakamba has 2+ fouls in 5 of 6 appearances

  • Doucoure 7 goals in last 16 Premier League games

  • Back Bet Builder double at around 9/1

Everton v Luton
Saturday 30 September, 15:00

There are always players who go a little under the radar in the props markets at the start of the season and they are often among the promoted teams.

I've already mentioned Anel Ahmedhodzic in this column this season - the Sheffield United defender continues to land shots consistently and his price is yet to truly plummet.

Leg 1: Marvelous Nakamba 2+ fouls

Another, more relevant to this game, is Luton's Marvelous Nakamba, who is again a very backable price in the fouls markets.

He's now landed the 2+ fouls bet in his last five appearances. His only miss came on the opening day at Brighton (1 foul), while last week he managed three against Wolves.

Another midfield battle awaits at Goodison where the hosts have yet to pick up a point or even score a goal. Everton know this is a game they need to win so expect them to be up for the fight after finally finding a bit of form following victories this week over Brentford and Aston Villa, the latter in the Carabao Cup.

Nakamba is at 8/52.60 to continue his 2+ fouls run and that looks too good to miss.

Leg 2: Abdoulaye Doucoure to score

While that looks a cracking single, this column is all about Bet Builders so let's add in another player who is arguably overpriced and that's Abdoulaye Doucoure in the anytime scorer market.

Doucoure found the net at Brentford last week, making it seven goals in his last 16 Premier League games.

He's become a key man of the Sean Dyche era with the Toffees' manager pushing the Mali international further forward this season, often just behind the focal point of the attack.

Doucoure is 11/43.75 to find the net again here. That looks large given his recent stats and taking into account the level of opposition - Luton have done little of note since promotion and it looks highly likely to be a long season of struggle.

They've already shipped four at Brighton and three at Chelsea so the potential for home goals here is clear.

Still, the problem with the bet is how much can Everton be trusted?

They've had a notoriously bad record against the newly-promoted teams in recent years - last season they won just one of those six games - and Luton will bid to prey on that.

As already highlighted, Everton have had problems scoring goals, although their expected goals figure (xG) is considerably better than their actual tally and the recent arrival of Beto and Arnaut Danjuma appears to have spiced up their attack. That's a recipe for pending improvement.

With that in mind, I'm prepared to take a chance on them here and can envisage Doucoure scoring one of two or three for the hosts.

Back Nakamba 2+ fouls & Doucoure to score @ around 9/110.00

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Column P/L 2023/24

Staked: 55pts
Returned: 64.86pts
P/L: +9.86pts

2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts

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