Football Bet of the Day: Improving visitors to avoid defeat

• Elche have failed to win last three games at home

• Burgos have lost just one in ten in the league

• Hosts too short in Match Odds market

Elche v Burgos
Friday 02 February, 19:30
Live on La Liga Sports TV

Getafe were far too gentle for our liking last night, going down 2-0 against capital city rivals Real Madrid. They picked up just one yellow card, when we'd asked for four.

We'll stay in Spain, but we'll drop a level, because Elche are up against Burgos in the Segunda Division and I suspect the hosts are a bit short at odds-on.

Both of these teams are in mid-table, with just a point separating them, but while that's a decent outcome for Burgos (who finished 11th last season) it's a disappointment for Elche, who are hoping to bounce back into La Liga at the first attempt.

Elche have kept faith with Argentinean coach Sebastian Beccacece, who is only 43 but has already been a coach for over 20 years. He worked as Jorge Sampaoli's assistant for many years, and now has the task of trying to lift Elche back into the top flight.

Elche have won just two of their last six games in the league, and their home form has collapsed. A shock defeat to lowly FC Cartagena was followed by goalless draws against Mirandes and Real Valladolid. Goalscoring has been a major problem - Elche have managed just 23 strikes in 24 games, and have scored just five goals across their last six games.

Burgos have lost just one of their last ten matches in the league, and that was a perfectly reasonable 2-0 reverse at the leaders Leganes. On the road, they have taken ten points from their last five away games.

Elche are trading at 1.9310/11 to win this, and that feels too short to me given the form of the two sides. Burgos are on the charge, while Elche have hit a bit of a brick wall. We'll keep this simple and lay the hosts in the Match Odds market.

Now read Kev's Bundesliga column here!