Croatia v Morocco: David v David is a cautious clash

• Teams drew 0-0 in the group stage

• Both sides built on determined defence

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Croatia v Morocco
Saturday 17 December, 15:00
Live on BBC One

It's the game that no-one really wants to play, the afterthought laced with the pain of a semi-final exit. The third/fourth place play-off at the World Cup is a curious beast, and in the cynic's reality in only truly exists as a another opportunity to display sponsors and sell stuff.

However, I think this year could be different. Morocco and Croatia are underdogs who have represented their countries with dignity and pride at this World Cup, and they did it based on cloying defence and a desire not to be beaten. That determination saw Croatia dump favourites Brazil out of the tournament, while Morocco saw off Belgium, Spain and Portugal and gave France an almighty semi-final scare.

The temptation is to think that this play-off is a free-for-all, a chance for the unused or underutilised to get rare starts, but I'm not so sure. Morocco have become the first African side to reach the semi-finals, and therefore they have an unprecedented chance to become the first country from their continent to finish third. Croatia reached the final in 2018, and they represent a country of just over 4 million, and they seem to treat every game with reverence. It's also worth noting that this is almost certainly Luka Modric's final World Cup appearance, so there'll be a desire to see him go out on a high.

All of these intangibles should give us a cagey game that is taken seriously, even if that goes against the general trends of these play-off matches. These teams played out a 0-0 draw at the start of the group phase, and I don't see why they'll suddenly go gung-ho. Five of Morocco's six World Cup 2022 games have seen an Under 2.5 Goals bet land, and that's true of four of Croatia's six.

On that basis I'll go for Under 2.5 Goals here at 1.981/1