Thursday Football Tips: Cards can count for Lazio in Turin

Maurizio Sarri
Maurizio Sarri's Lazio can get a few cards at Torino

Paul Higham is backing more Lazio cards than goals in their Serie A trip to defensive-minded Torino on Thursday.

  • Lazio have 3+ cards in 10 of last 12 matches

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  • Lazio head to Torino just a point ahead of their hosts on Thursday, with both sides needing a victory to keep their European hopes alive.

    The pair are just four and five points off the top six so a run is possible, and three points here would be a massive boost to their chances.

    Torino are unbeaten in six and have lost just once in 11 behind a pretty solid defence, while Maurizio Sarri's Lazio beat Bayern Munich in the Champions League but have had a frustrating recent run of one win in four seeing them slip off the pace.

    It's a tough one to call, but we think there's some value around for the right Bet Builder...

    Leg 1: Under 2.5 goals

    Only the top two have conceded fewer goals than Torino, but by the same token only two teams in Serie A have scored fewer as well - their fans aren't really getting value for money in terms of goals this season.

    Only Inter (15) have kept more clean sheets than Torino's 12 but while 4/61.67 on both teams not to score appeals, to include the chance of a 1-1 we'll kick-off with under 2.5 goals at 1/21.50.

    Both sides average under the magic mark per game - Torino actually prop up the table with just 1.8 goals per game overall and just four of 12 home matches have seen three goals or more.

    Lazio's away record is brighter, but they don't come up against defences like Torino's every week so I expect this to be a low scorer.

    Leg 2: Lazio over 2.5 cards

    Nice to get odds against here of 21/202.05 for Lazio to get over 2.5 cards as this bet has landed in 10 of their last 12 away games in all competitions.

    Even including home games it's hit in seven out of 10 for Sarri's side, and being away from home against a side so difficult to break down will only add to their recent frustrations if they can't find a goal.

    Leg 3: Lazio most cards

    And just building on Lazio's cards records on the road - overall they've had 10 more than Torino this season, and the home versus away split also favours us here.

    If we're backing Lazio to get three cards minimum, then we have to take the 6/52.20 for Lazio to have the most cards in this match-up, given Torino have only had three or more once in 14 home games this campaign.

    This one's probably worth a bet by itself, as Torino have only had more than one card five times on home turf this season.

    Back under 2.5 goals, Lazio over 2.5 cards & Lazio most cards @ 3/14.00

    Bet now

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COLUMN P/L 2023/24

Staked: 180pts
Returned: 190.63pts
P/L: +10.63pts

2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts

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