Bet of the Day

Southampton v West Brom: Side with Saints in 15/2 Bet Builder

Southampton's top scorer Adam Armstrong
Adam Armstrong: Has scored or assisted in 27 of his 45 Championship starts

Our football props column has a 15/2 Bet Builder for Friday night's Championship play-off semi-final with the two legs both looking strong, according to the data...

Southampton v West Brom
Friday 17 May, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Football and Main Event

The first Championship play-off semi-final was won convincingly by Leeds after a goalless first leg and I wouldn't be hugely surprised if Southampton managed to repeat the trick here.

It wasn't a particularly lively first game on Sunday but in front of their home fans, Southampton will again likely dominate possession - they led the Championship in this category by some distance this season - and bid to grind down West Brom.

Only Ipswich scored more home goals than Saints (56 in 23 games) during the regular season and with the Baggies having struggled on the road, posting a paltry six wins in 23, it's not hard to see where odds-on quotes about the home victory come from.

Leg 1: Adam Armstrong to score or assist

However, rather than back the hosts, the way I'm keen to get with them is via top scorer Adam Armstrong.
He's well into double figures for both goals (21) and assists (13) and has landed the 'to score or assist' bet in 27 of his 45 Championship starts.

Armstrong bagged the winner when these sides met at St Mary's in the league and looks decent at odds-against to land this bet again.

Leg 2: Ryan Manning to be shown a card

The other bet I like surrounding the hosts comes in the cards market.

Saints were in the top six for cards received in the second tier this season and the man who looks the best bet for one in this game is Ryan Manning.

The former Swansea man has been booked in 10 of his 31 starts for Southampton which immediately makes 3/14.00 quotes look big.

His likely opponents should also encourage potential backers.

Manning will start either in a left-back or left-midfield role, putting him in direct opposition to Darnell Furlong - West Brom's most-fouled player in terms of total fouls - and either Tom Fellows or Jed Wallace, both players who like to dribble with the ball and take defenders on.

Given they are likely to be without the ball a lot of the time, West Brom will look to break quickly when they can and that's exactly the sort of scenario where the back-tracking Manning could come to referee Tim Robinson's attention.

The official could be better from a card-punter's perspective but a man averaging almost exactly four cards per game across all competitions is far from a disastrous appointment.

The two legs combined in a Bet Builder pay around 15/28.50.

Now read George Elek's in-depth preview and 14/1 shot!

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Column P/L 2023/24

Staked: 257pts
Returned: 280.36pts
P/L: +23.36pts

2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.