Saturday Football Tips: Back 23/10 Bet Builder double in Shield showdown

• Under 3.5 cards in 5 of last 6 Shield games & 6 of last 8 derbies

• Fernandes SOT in last 12 United matches & 5 of last 6 v City

• Back Bet Builder double at around 23/103.30

• Get a FREE bet every time your team scores a goal in August!

Manchester City v Manchester United
Saturday 10 August, 15:00
Live on ITV1

When success seems a long way off - and after recent results, it certainly does right now - it's usually a good idea to look at what has worked well in the past.

Leg 1: Under 3.5 cards

When it comes to the Community Shield, I've certainly profited following the low-cards trend over the years and that looks a sensible ploy once again.

The last six make-ups in the Shield have been (most recent first) 4-2-3-1-1-0, meaning under 3.5 cards has landed in five of the last six.

As you can see, the exception was last year when there was great fanfare about a clampdown about player behaviour leading into the game.

That led to the card count climbing in general throughout the 2023/24 season but players should be a bit more clued up this season, while there would surely be no surprise were card totals to fall back, at least a bit, in 2024/25.

Perhaps surprisingly for a derby fixture, under 3.5 cards has also landed in six of the eight clashes between these two sides since crowds returned post-COVID lockdown.

The referee is Jared Gillett - a late replacement for the injured John Brooks.

While the change gives us an official with a higher card average, it's worth noting that Gillett showed City just two cards in four games last season.

Leg 2: Bruno Fernandes 1+ shot on target

Remembering that this is essentially a pre-season friendly, under 3.5 cards gets the nod and is doubled up with Bruno Fernandes to have a shot on target.

The Portuguese was the shining light for United for much of last season and he's expected to play for the first time since Euro 2024 here.

He had a shot on target in his last 12 games of last season, while he's also landed this bet in five of his last six meetings with City.

Throw in the fact that City are going to be fielding a side well short of their best - Rodri, Phil Foden, Kyle Walker and John Stones have all yet to even restart training - and it's a little surprising to see Fernandes at 10/111.91 for have another shot on target.

The double pays just north of 23/103.30.

For those seeking something bigger, consider Oscar Bobb to score - that leg is offered at 11/43.75 and would take the Bet Builder close to 12/113.00.

Bobb has started all of City's pre-season games as Pep Guardiola gradually integrates his Euro 2024 stars back in and, with Julian Alvarez set for Atletico Madrid, it could well be the Norwegian youngster is being prepped for more first-team action.

He's netted in two of the four and here looks likely to go up against something of a makeshift defence with virtually all of United's backline regulars rated injury doubts.

In a game likely to see plenty of substitutions, Bobb is arguably one of those most likely to play 90 minutes and, playing for the odds-on favourites, could well deliver at a decent price.

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