Granada v Cadiz: Derby red on the cards

• Red card shown in 7 of last 10 derby meetings

• Sobrino averaging a card every 99 minutes

• Back Bet Builder at north of 14/115.00

• Read about Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here

Granada v Cadiz
Wednesday 3 January, 16:00
Live on Viaplay Sports 1

It's days like yesterday that really hurt in this job.

You identify an angle, the match plays out largely as you expect but the specifics of the props you actually put up fail to come in.

Getafe v Rayo Vallecano certainly delivered on fouls - 32 in total, way above the league average - but maybe I should have had the courage of my convictions and gone with the cards which I first mentioned; there were 10 of those shown by the final whistle.

That derby had a strong record for cards and we've got another local affair in La Liga on Wednesday - and another trend.

Leg 1: Red card in the match

These two Andalusian sides have met 10 times this century and seven of those matches have produced a red card.

Eight of those meetings have come in the last six years with the last three all seeing someone sent off.

The chance of another red looks decent in their latest clash, certainly better than odds of 21/103.10 suggest.

In the La Liga fair-play standings, both sides are in the bottom six with only Getafe having a worse disciplinary record than Cadiz.

Cadiz are also third for fouls committed and ninth for being fouled. Granada are ninth and second respectively.

Referee Juan Luis Pulido Santana is the fifth best for cards and fourth for fouls per game. He's shown a red in two of his nine La Liga games this season.

And, finally, this is a crucial battle towards the bottom of the table - Granada certainly had ill afford to lose - they sit 19th, seven points adrift of Cadiz, who lie in the final position of safety.

That looks a great mix for cards and fouls.

Leg 2: Ruben Sobrino to be shown a card

The Bet Builder continues with another value pick which is Ruben Sobrino to be carded at 11/43.75.

The Cadiz man is being tipped to replace the suspended Ivan Alejo and while I've often mentioned the problem of trying to guess the team line-ups, I'm at the very least giving him a good mention knowing plenty of readers will prefer to place their bet in the hour before kick-off.

With six cards so far this season, Sobrino is averaging one every 99 minutes. He's been booked in two of his four starts, following on from last term when he was carded in 11 of 28 starts.

That makes his price look good.

Leg 3: Fali 1+ foul

Finally, I'm going to back Sobrino's team-mate Fali for 1+ foul.

The centre-back has landed this in seven of his last eight games and looks likely to be facing tricky Argentine Lucas Boye, a player who loves to dribble and run at defenders, in this contest.

The Fali leg brings the Bet Builder up to a price of just over 14/115.00. It would be a nice way to make up for yesterday's pain.

More La Liga: Check out Jamie Kemp's best midweek bets!