Bet of the Day

Getafe v Rayo Vallecano: Derby clash screams fouls

Getafe manager Jose 'Pepe' Bordalas
Pepe Bordalas' Getafe are local rivals of Rayo Vallecano

The South Madrid derby has proved a feisty affair in recent times and our football props column is turning to the fouls market in search of profit.


Getafe v Rayo Vallecano
Tuesday 2 January, 16:00
Live on Viaplay Sports 2

The South Madrid derby may not be particularly well known, certainly in the UK, but it's a been a feisty old game over the past decade or so.

The booking points tallies have had card punters in clover and there have been 8+ cards in 11 of the last 20 meetings of these two.

It's 2/13.00 about a repeat, which is tempting, but referee Jorge Figueroa Vazquez is one of La Liga's more lenient officials this season in card terms, while the other off-putting factor is that the game is being staged in Atletico Madrid's Metropolitano stadium with Getafe's Coliseum closed for one game following a court ruling over historic crowd trouble.

Leg 1: Diego Rico 1+ foul

The intense atmosphere of Getafe's tight home ground will therefore be lost but that doesn't put me off turning to the fouls market instead.

The reason for that is we've got the highest-fouling team in the league (Getafe) against the team ranked third on the same metric, along with the ref with the second-best fouls-per-game figure in the Primera Division.

Regardless of a relatively small crowd in a big stadium, this looks a recipe for fouls in a derby contest.

I'll kick-off our Bet Builder by looking at the likely battle down the Rayo right between their winger, Isi Palazon, and Getafe left-back, Diego Rico.

Leg 2: Isi Palazon 1+ foul

Both men are among La Liga's top 10 most-fouled players - Palazon has long featured in that list - and it's not hard to see both men subsequently committing a foul.

Rico has made one in nine of his 13 games for Getafe since joining in the last transfer window, while Palazon's stats are nine of 17 starts, including five of his last seven.

Both get the nod for 1+ foul.

Leg 3: Luis Milla 2+ fouls

In the 2+ fouls market, Getafe central midfielder Luis Milla looks worth backing.

He's delivered for his backers in four of his last six starts, picking up a yellow card in the last four.

Milla will be in the heart of the battle so can land this again.

Leg 4: Unai Lopez 2+ fouls

Finally, in a similar position for Rayo, let's side with Unai Lopez for 2+ fouls.
He's managed this in seven of his last 10 starts and should start in that central area.

He gets preference at this stage ahead of Alfonso Espino, the Rayo left-back, who looks a decent price at evens in the same market given he's delivered in 10 of 16 starts this season.

The problem is, he lost his place in the starting XI last time out and may not win it back.

As ever, the team news could deal us a blow - subs who come on are deemed runners - so with four players in our 7/24.50-plus Bet Builder, it might be worth waiting for those team line-ups which will be announced around an hour before kick-off.

Back Rico & Palazon 1+ foul each and Milla & Lopez 2+ fouls each @ around 7/24.50

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Column P/L 2023/24

Staked: 138pts
Returned: 151.7pts
P/L: +13.7pts

2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.