Germany v Scotland Tips: It's Scott to be the fouls market

• McTominay foul numbers look strong

• Side with Andrich and Rudiger in same market

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Germany v Scotland
Friday 14 June, 20:00
Live on ITV1

Euro 2024 kicks off on Friday night with the hosts short-priced favourites to beat Scotland in Munich.

For me, the Germans are too short.

Yes, there's evidence that Julian Nagelsmann has improved Die Mannschaft - wins over France and the Netherlands in March were eyecatching. However, one of the reasons they did stand out is what had gone before - six defeats in 10 and, looking longer term, a raft of disappointment on the big stage.

The old adage about the efficient Germans always delviering in tournament football is very much in the past.

Germany have exited the last two World Cups in the group stage, while at the last European Championships they were deservedly beaten by England in the last 16. They've also failed to make an impact in three Nations League campaigns in that period.

Scotland beat Spain during an impressive qualifying campaign and have shown they can be dogged opponents.

Due to Germany's match odds, the shots market also makes little appeal with some very short prices offered about the home players.

Scott McTominay will be of interest to some in this market after he scored seven times in qualifying.

However, of the 24 finalists, Scotland did have the second lowest shots-per-game tally in qualifying and it's not hard to envisage this being a rearguard action.

Leg 1: Scott McTominay to be fouled 2+ times

I am keen, however, to side with McTominay in the fouls markets, which is where I'm going to put together our Bet Builder.

The standout bet for this match looks to be McTominay to be fouled 2+ times at 15/82.88.

With the Manchester United midfielder given greater licence to drive forward for his country, he's landed this bet in six of his last eight internationals.

While some will fear that Germany dominating possession will reduce the chances of McTominay being fouled, it's worth noting he's been fouled multiple times in recent games against Netherlands, France and Spain.

Scotland were the second most-fouled team in qualifying - they were fouled 13.13 times per game on average - and so this looks a good value bet and very much worth backing as a single.

Leg 2: Scott McTominay to commit 1+ foul

However, it's Bet Builders in this column and so we move on to other fouls opportunities.

McTominay should also be backed to commit 1+ foul, something he's managed in nine of his last 11 internationals. He also committed a foul in eight of his last nine starts for United this season.

With Toni Kroos back in the German midfield, he'll need stopping and I'd expect the soon-to-retire star to be on the receiving end of a few tackles.

Leg 3: Robert Andrich to commit 1+ foul

His likely midfield partner, Robert Andrich, also looks a strong play for a foul, albeit at a short price.

He's committed one in all five appearances for Germany and finished the season by fouling in 10 of Leverkusen's last 13 matches.

In that midfield battle with McTominay, Bill Gilmour, John McGinn and Ryan Christie, Andrich looks highly likely to deliver and gets the nod.

Leg 4: Antonio Rudiger to commit 1+ foul

Finally, let's add Antonio Rudiger for a foul.

The Real Madrid defender's foul numbers are considerably higher for his country than his club and he's committed at least one in 10 of his last 12 Germany games. In five of those he's committed multiple fouls.

He'll be up against Che Adams or Lawrence Shankland in this contest - both have a physical presence and have been foul targets in the recent past. Adams has been fouled in his last three starts; Shankland has won four fouls in his three starts. There will also be those midfield runners to trouble Rudiger.

Of course, it would be foolish not to consider the referee in any fouls (or cards) bet.

Clement Turpin takes the whistle for the tournament opener but the Frenchman is all fine on the fouls front.

He averaged 24.6 in this season's Champions League - more than two per game above the competition average - while he was virtually bang on the Ligue 1 average.

In international football, his figures are slightly lower with an average of 22.9 across qualifying, the last World Cup and the 22/23 Nations League.

However, that's still a healthy number and certainly nothing to put us off.

The four-fold Bet Builder pumps out odds of around 13/27.50 - hopefully a great way to start the tournament!

More GER v SCO: Read Kevin Hatchard's in-depth preview!