Bet of the Day

Cuiaba v Botafogo: Profit by foul means in Brazil

Botafogo defender Bastos
Bastos: Good for fouls

With Euro 2024 and Copa America on rest days on Wednesday, our football props column is turning to the fouls market in Brazil with 6/4 and 13/1 shots selected...

  • Botafogo are the foul leaders in Brazil's top flight

  • Trio all regulars when it comes to committing fouls

  • Back Bet Builder trebles at 6/4 and 13/1

Cuiaba v Botafogo
Wednesday 3 July, 23:00

There's no Euro 2024 or Copa America action on Wednesday as teams prepare for the quarter-finals so it's off to Brazil's top flight, which continues against the backdrop of the latter event.

With the longer shots simply not coming in at the moment in this column, it's time to try a shorter-priced option.
And the angle to take here looks to be to back Botafogo fouls - they are the highest-fouling team in Serie A. For the record, Cuiaba are mid-table when it comes to being fouled.

I did consider cards - both sides are in the top four on that front - but referee Paulo Cesar Zanovelli da Silva isn't the best for going to his notebook. He is, however, above average when it comes to fouls per game.

Leg 1: Bastos to commit 1+ foul

With this in mind, I'm going to put a player fouls treble together, largely using the data.

Defender Bastos is the first name on the list - he's committed a foul in nine of his last 10 starts.

Leg 2: Lucas Halter to commit 1+ foul

Centre-back partner Lucas Halter has delivered on the same bet in eight of his last 10.

The pair look like to face centre-forward Isidro Pitta, while Railan and Derik Lacerda will cut in from wide areas - if they stick with the same team which drew with Red Bull Bragantino last time out and is now unbeaten in five. All are among Cuiaba's most-fouled players.

Leg 3: Luiz Henrique to commit 1+ foul

Midfielder Luiz Henrique also gets the nod - he's committed a foul in eight of his last 10 starts.

The 1+ foul treble pays around 6/42.50 which would be a welcome winner.

However, for those seeking something bigger - and I know many will want that option - why not try backing the trio for 2+ fouls each which takes the price up above 13/114.00?

All three have decent records for landing this with Bastos having managed it in three of his last five outings.
Halter has delivered in six of his last 10 and Henrique in five of his last eight.

Yes, it's a long shot but perhaps not as long as the odds suggest.

Botafogo committed 23 fouls in their last game, away to Vasco da Gama, who have been fouled almost exactly as often as Cuiaba across the season so far.

Let's try three-quarters of the stake on the 1+ fouls bet and the other quarter on 2+.

Euro 2024: All the stat leaders ahead of the quarter-finals!

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Column P/L 2023/24

Staked: 299pts
Returned: 320.31pts
P/L: +21.31pts

2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts

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