Bet of the Day

Bayern Munich v Real Madrid: Back Special K's at 8/1

Bayern Munich and Germany star Joshua Kimmich
Joshua Kimmich: Look out for his crosses from the right-hand side

Our football props column was back in the winner's circle on Monday night and now Andy Schooler has turned his attention to 8/19.00 and 13/53.60 shots in Bayern Munich v Real Madrid.

Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
Tuesday 30 April, 20:00
Live on TNT Sports 1

Club football doesn't get much bigger than this and with the Champions League semi-finals having rarely disappointed in recent years, there is much to look forward to here.

Some felt Real were a tad fortunate to reach this stage having soaked up a lot of pressure against Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium in the previous round.

However, while they conceded aplenty of possession, they still limited City in terms of clear-cut chances, albeit Kevin de Bruyne is probably still thinking about one he missed.

A repeat in the Allianz Arena ahead of a home second leg could be fully acceptable but expect Thomas Tuchel to try something different to Pep Guardiola, who was steadfast in his thinking that City would eventually find a way to break Real down.

City were reluctant to deliver balls in from wide areas but Bayern have the arsenal to do that, particularly down the right.

Bet 1: Kimmich anytime assist & Kane to score

Joshua Kimmich has returned to his right-back role in the second half of the season, a position from which he has long driven forward. He has the delivery skills too, as he showed against Arsenal in the last round when he got into some great forward positions, eventually scoring the decisive goal.

Kimmich is certainly head and shoulders above his team-mates in terms of quantity of crosses - he averages 2.4 per game in the Bundesliga with the next-best Bayern player, Leroy Sane, on 1.0. It's a similar tale in this competition, albeit both figures are, understandably, a tad lower.

With Harry Kane an excellent target waiting in the middle - he's got 42 goals in 42 games since joining Bayern - I'd expect the German international to be getting the ball into the box when given the opportunity.

Kimmich for an assist at 5/16.00 is certainly tempting - he's had one in three of his 12 games since returning to right-back - and I think he's worth doubling up with Kane to score.

The England captain will be up against a defence without the suspended Dani Carvajal, while Aurelien Tchouameni is again set to fill in at centre-back, a role in which the 24-year-old has limited experience.

The Bet Builder pays 8/19.00.

Back Kane to score & Kimmich to assist @ 8/19.00

Bet here

Bet 2: Tchouameni to be fouled 1+ time & Valverde to commit 1+ foul

However, I'm going to split the stakes equally between that bet and another which has been derived from the data.

The aforementioned Tchouameni has now been fouled in 11 of his last 15 Real starts, which have been a mixture of midfield and centre-back selections.

Forwards Kane and Jamal Musiala are second and third in Bayern's list for leading foulers so odds-against about a repeat looks good.

That can be added to Federico Valverde to commit 1+ foul.

The Uruguayan has now delivered on that front in his last 11 appearances and here he's likely to have plenty of defensive work to do on the Real right.

Noussair Mazraoui and Raphael Guerreiro were lauded for the way they linked up during the defeat of Arsenal in the quarter-finals and look likely to retain their places.

Even if they are broken up, a return for the pacy Alphonso Davies - suspended for that Arsenal game - would simply offer up different problems for Valverde.

This fouls double pays around 13/53.60 which looks good considering the data.

Back Tchouameni to be fouled 1+ times & Valverde to commit 1+ fouls @ 13/53.60

Bet here

More Bayern v Real: Read Lewis Jones' big-match verdict!

Football... Only Bettor - European Semi-Finals special - Listen here!

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Column P/L 2023/24

Staked: 240pts
Returned: 261.39pts
P/L: +21.39pts

2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts

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