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Simeone Jr playing like his father with plenty of fouls
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Garcia on hot shots on target streak
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Atletico Madrid v Rayo Vallecano
Thursday 24 April, 20:30 kick-off
Live on LaLiga TV & Premier Sports 1
Atletico Madrid are in a funny spot - 13 points off leaders Barcelona but with a 12-point cushion in the Champions League spots, they're all-but assured of a top five spot so have little driving them towards the end of the season.
And it's a good job as their form of late has been rotten - losing five of their last nine in all competitions to go out of the Champions League and Cope del Rey and see their slim title hopes burn out. That no doubt contributed to their lacklustre 1-0 defeat to lowly Las Palmas last time out.
Despite chasing just a second ever place in European competition, Rayo Vallecano's form has been pretty poor too and their record against their Madrid neighbours is atrocious, with no win in 17 meetings (L13 D4).
Rayo do have a man in form that we're backing here though, along with Atletico Madrid manager Diego Simeone's son - who looks like a chip off the old block.
Diego Simeone has certainly passed down his combative midfield skills to 22-year-old son Giuliano, who has given away seven fouls in his last five outings for Atleti.
The coach is sure to have given his side a rocket after losing to Las Palmas and no slacking off will be allowed between now and the end of the campaign - and how better to lead the way on the field than his son.
Simeone Jr has two multiple foul games in his last three and seven overall for the season - so we'll back him for 2+ fouls here at 13/82.63.
Given Atletico's ropey recent form, I really like the look of the 13/102.30 on Rayo's Alvaro Garcia for 1+ shot on target given he's on such a hot run of form.
As Garcia has hit the target in his last 10 games in a row for Vallecano, including four games with multiple efforts on target. He's fresh off a six shots, three shots on target effort against Valencia so the 5/16.00 on him for 2+ shots on target was also a big consideration.
But this is still a tough away game for Rayo so we'll keep the expectations in check for our Bet Builder.
Back Simeone 2+ fouls & Garcia 2+ shots on target