Williams has 3+ shots on target four times this season
Back Williams & goals Bet Builder at 11/26.50
It looks like a solid home banker on paper as European chasers Athletic Bilbao host relegation battlers Celta Vigo in La Liga on Friday night.
Athletic are fifth and have lost just once at home this season, but they have had two 2-2 draws in their last three home fixtures.
Celta, though, have just one win in total this season under Rafa Benitez after a late Sevilla goal grabbed a 1-1 draw last time out - and away from home they've lost three on the spin.
Five of Celta's last seven games has seen both sides find the net, along with three of Athletic's last five at home - but we're opting instead for over 2.5 goals at 4/51.80
That's landed in the last five Bilbao home games, where matches have averaged 3.7 goals per game as when they've won they've had a couple of 3-0s in there.
Celta have scored in four of five on their travels, with three of those over the 2.5-goal mark, but with Athletic having that firepower even if the visitors fail to notch then the hosts could likely get another three to cover.
Inaki Williams leads the league with 19 shots on target from his 34 attempts on goal - he's scored five so needs to brush up a bit on his finishing but his production is right up there.
He's got a goal and assist in his last two games, but the fact that he's so good at hitting the target, without neccesarily hitting the back of the net makes shots the way to go.
And although I usually don't like going for more than 2+ shots on target in a game, you just can't ignore William's recent flourish.
Williams is 3/14.00 for 3+ shots on target, which he's managed in his last two games and in three of four - with even in that one he didn't quite get it he managed two shots on target.
He's hit the target 3+ times in four La Liga games so far, which is amore than decent effort - and three of those have come at home at San Mames against two struggling teams and also Valencia.
So he's in form and has plenty of previous for stacking up shots on target - and now faces a relegation candidate with just one win all season at home. Sometimes it pays to just keep it simple and back the stats.