Bet of the Day

Aston Villa v Liverpool: Feel the value in 5/1 Bet Builder

Unai Emery, Aston Villa manager
Unai Emery's Aston Villa know victory will put them in next season's Champions League

Our football props column is kicking off a new week with a 5/1 Bet Builder for Monday night's Premier League clash between Aston Villa and Liverpool.


Aston Villa v Liverpool
Monday 13 May, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event

Leg 1: Villa/Draw double chance

With Aston Villa having avoided defeat in 22 of their last 25 Premier League home games, I like the look of even money about them doing so again here.

Yes, Liverpool are one of the best teams in the league - they sit directly above Villa in the table, occupying third place.

But their long-standing hopes of title glory were finally extinguished on Saturday and so they will arrive at Villa Park with little to play for.

That contrasts with their hosts, who are still looking to achieve their primary goal of a top-four finish and the subsequent reward of Champions League football.

They very much remain in the box seat - there's a four-point gap to Tottenham with both sides having two games to play - but Spurs applied a bit of pressure on Saturday by beating Burnley.

Victory here would seal the deal but anything else could leave Sunday's final game at in-form Crystal Palace looking awkward indeed.

# TEAM P W D L GF GA PTS xGF xGA xGD EXP FCST
1 Man City 38 28 7 3 96 34 91 0 0 0
2 Arsenal 38 28 5 5 91 29 89 0 0 0
3 Liverpool 38 24 10 4 86 41 82 0 0 0
4 Aston Villa 38 20 8 10 76 61 68 0 0 0
5 Tottenham 38 20 6 12 74 61 66 0 0 0
6 Chelsea 38 18 9 11 77 63 63 0 0 0
7 Newcastle 38 18 6 14 85 62 60 0 0 0
8 Man Utd 38 18 6 14 57 58 60 0 0 0
9 West Ham 38 14 10 14 60 74 52 0 0 0
10 Crystal Palace 38 13 10 15 57 58 49 0 0 0
11 Brighton 38 12 12 14 55 62 48 0 0 0
12 Bournemouth 38 13 9 16 54 67 48 0 0 0
13 Fulham 38 13 8 17 55 61 47 0 0 0
14 Wolves 38 13 7 18 50 65 46 0 0 0
15 Everton 38 13 9 16 40 51 40 0 0 0
16 Brentford 38 10 9 19 56 65 39 0 0 0
17 Nottm Forest 38 9 9 20 49 67 32 0 0 0
18 Luton 38 6 8 24 52 85 26 0 0 0
19 Burnley 38 5 9 24 41 78 24 0 0 0
20 Sheff Utd 38 3 7 28 35 104 16 0 0 0
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Essentially, motivation levels are poles apart and while it's hard to get away from the fact that Villa have lost three in a row, it's should also be pointed out Liverpool have won just three of eight and haven't kept a clean sheet in their last nine - their worst such run for 20 years.

I don't like Liverpool at odds-on here and will happily side with Villa in the double-chance market which means our bet will land even if the match is drawn.

Leg 2: Harvey Elliott 3+ shots

One of those who has shone during Liverpool's recent iffy spell which has essentially cost them their title chance - not to mention Europa League hopes - is Harvey Elliott.

Jurgen Klopp heaped praise on the youngster ahead of this game, saying: "If I regret one thing (this season) a little bit it's that Harvey didn't play often enough maybe".

In betting terms, Elliott has caught my eye in terms of his shot output.

His spectacular goal against Spurs last weekend was one of four shots in that game, repeating his efforts in recent away matches at Fulham and West Ham.

Elliott appears to have been given a bit more attacking licence and after last week's strike, confidence should be up, making shots even more likely.

Villa are, of course, no mugs defensively, so the bet I prefer is for Elliott to hit 3+ shots - that's 13/82.63 shot on its own.

Add it to the double-chance bet and we're getting more than 5/16.00 in our Bet Builder. That seems like a spot of Monday night value.


More Villa v Liverpool: Mike Norman's in-depth preview!


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Column P/L 2023/24

Staked: 249pts
Returned: 274.58pts
P/L: +25.58pts

2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts

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