Back in the winning groove on Monday, our football props column has a 4/1 Bet Builder for Tuesday's Champions League clash in Lisbon.
-
Benfica landed 6+ shots in 3 of 4 home CL games
-
Strict ref makes fouls likely
-
Time to back 4/1 Bet Builder
Benfica have quietly gone about their business in this season's Champions League and they are still not really being talked about despite landing a good quarter-final draw.
They are slight favourites to progress to the last four but to do so will likely need a win in this game, one for which they are 5/4 shots.
They've really tested opponents at the Estadio da Luz this season, beating Maccabi Haifa, Juventus and Club Brugge and drawing with PSG.
Their shot numbers have been impressive and they've managed at least six shots on target in three of the four, only failing against the Israelis on matchday one.
That's a 17/10 chance here which looks overpriced, particularly when you considered Inter's shots conceded figures - they've allowed Porto, Bayern and Barcelona at least 21 shots each in their recent away games in this competition.
Ref makes fouls appeal
To boost up the price, let's turn to the fouls markets.
The choice of Michael Oliver as referee should ensure the tally is high. Of the officials who have taken charge of at least three Champions League games this season, he leads the way for fouls per game, having produced a figure of 25.8.
Inter's midfield looks likely to be busy and I'm happy to include Nico Barella for a foul. He's landed this in eight of his last 11 appearances and five of seven in this competition this season (10 fouls in total).
Wing-back Denziel Dumfries is also worth adding in the same market.
He managed three fouls in Barcelona and two away to Porto in this competition while recent numbers have also been strong. One suspects Mr Oliver will penalise him at some point here.
The three-legged Bet Builder pays 4/1.
Read Jamie Pacheco's in-depth preview of Benfica v Inter