Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides La Liga result and scoreline predictions as Barcelona face the last team to beat them in the league...
"If Ronald Koeman can get his team firing again, they should have no trouble avenging that 2-1 defeat at Ramón de Carranza."
Getafe to lose fourth straight game
A third straight loss has left Getafe just three points clear of the drop, and a trip to Benito Villamarín wouldn't have been top of their list as they attempt to pull away from danger. La Liga's lowest scorers have averaged just 0.97 xGF per game - down to 0.60 across their last three on the road - and Infogol's model makes them clear underdogs against a Betis side coming off an impressive win at Villarreal.
Eibar to take advantage of away form
Elche and Eibar are two of the worst sides in La Liga for form, and the meeting at Manuel Martínez Valero promises to be a tight one. The visitors have more points away than at home this season, and Infogol suggests that could be enough to just about see them through against an Elche side who will hope new manager Fran Escribá is able to turn around their fortunes after eight home games without a win.
Atléti to find instant response against Levante
Atlético Madrid and Levante played out a 1-1 draw in midweek in a game rescheduled from earlier in the season, with the league leaders slightly unfortunate not to take all three points based on their respective xG returns. Diego Simeone might have half an eye on next week's Champions League clash with Chelsea, but his side should still have enough to preserve their unbeaten home record after allowing just 1.07 xGA per game at Wanda Metropolitano.
Celta to take the points at the Mestalla
Valencia's only victory in their last five league games came at home to lowly Elche, and visitors Celta could be in line to pile more misery on Javi Gracia's team. Eduardo Coudet's men were victorious last weekend - also against Elche - and travel to the Mestalla in the midst of a four-game unbeaten run. Infogol's model makes them slight favourites to complete a double over Los Che, after Iago Aspas' double gave them the points back in September.
Real Madrid to prolong their winning run
Real Madrid have averaged just 0.16 xGA in their last two games - both victories - and will be confident they can keep Valladolid quiet on Saturday. Sergio González's team haven't won at home in 2021, and drew a blank against the champions in the corresponding game last season, so Zinedine Zidane's side can be confident of picking up three points as they prepare to take on Atalanta in their return to European action next week.
Barcelona to get revenge on Cádiz
Barcelona have gone 12 games undefeated in the league since losing away to Cádiz in December, but go into this game off the back of a humbling against Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League. If Ronald Koeman can get his team firing again, they should have no trouble avenging that 2-1 defeat at Ramón de Carranza, with Infogol's model giving the Catalan club a 76% chance of success.
Real Sociedad to earn third league win in a row
Real Sociedad have tightened up defensively and seen results improve as a result, allowing just 0.51 xGA per game across their last four in La Liga. The visit of an Alavés side averaging just 1.08 xGF on the road themselves suggests the hosts will take the points if they maintain their high standards, though they'll be keen to avoid a hangover from their Europa League travails when they welcome Abelardo's team to Anoeta.
Huesca to pick up a point in relegation fight
Huesca can count themselves unfortunate to have taken nothing from their meeting with Sevilla last time out, but they can't afford to get unlucky too many times. Infogol gives them and opponents Granada an identical chance of victory on Sunday, with Pacheta's team looking to go one better than December's meeting where Germán's last-minute effort ensured the game ended all-square. The visitors have drawn two of their last three, though, and could well be about to make it three from four.
Athletic to dent Villarreal's European hopes
Marcelino's hosts should go into this game full of confidence after scoring four away to Cádiz, and their strength at San Mamés points to a home win despite Villarreal sitting above them in the table. The visitors are in a bit of a slump, falling out of touch with the top four and seeing their top six spot under threat, and haven't beaten Athletic in any of their last four league meetings.
Sevilla to rebound from European disappointment
Sevilla will have been left frustrated by their Champions League loss at home to Borussia Dortmund, and Julen Lopetegui will want his team to build up some league momentum before the return leg. That mission begins at El Sadar, where Osasuna won last time out but are averaging just 1.15 xGF and 1.18 actual goals per game. Infogol's model favours the visitors in what could well be a low-scoring encounter.