Wolves v Aston Villa: Back card double at 15/1 in derby clash

• Expect cards in televised derby affair at Molineux

• Bookings for Semedo and Rogers more likely than odds suggest

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Wolves v Aston Villa
Saturday 1 February, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League & Main Event

There's been plenty I've liked about Wolves this season and I'm a little surprised they are still in the relegation zone at this point.

They've always offered a threat going forward, as a tally of 32 goals shows. Matheus Cunha has been a shining light - it's no surprise that suitors are circling - Jorgen Strand Larsen has proved a handful at times and wing-backs Rayan Ai-Nouri and Nelson Semedo ensure Wolves do get numbers into attacking areas.

Wolves slipping back to old ways?

The problem has been at the other end where 52 goals have been conceded in just 23 games - that's only one fewer than rock-bottom Southampton.

The appointment of Vitor Pereira did have an immediate impact, although they've reverted to losing ways of late, being beaten in their last four.

That said, it's a been a very tough run - Arsenal, Chelsea, Newcastle and Nottingham Forest are the teams to have defeated them - and while Villa sit eighth, the arrival of their neighbours certainly offers hope to a side who have lost eight of 11 at home so far.

Schedule struggle for Villa

Villa haven't been great on their travels, conceding 21 times - the highest such figure outside the bottom five. Meanwhile, Wolves have won five of the last seven meetings of these sides at Molineux, Villa's only win coming in the COVID season of no fans when home advantage went out of the window.

Villa have also been struggling with the demands of European football. Last week's draw with West Ham made them winless in their last six post-Champions League matches.

After that draw, boss Unai Emery admitted a lack of "fresh" legs and now they've got a Wednesday-Saturday turnaround of less than 72 hours.

They've also spent much of the past week dealing with bids for their two biggest goal threats - Ollie Watkins is wanted by Arsenal, while Jhon Duran appears set for a move to Saudi Arabia. Losing both would not be a good look.

It wouldn't be a huge surprise were Watkins deemed to be "not in the right frame of mind" for this one - he's a boyhood Arsenal fan, who has openly declared his dream to play for the Gunners - and frankly all the transfer talk makes this even tougher to call.

Hosts tempting - but not enough

As suggested, I am a little tempted by Wolves, who are 3.55/2 for the win and 1.814/5 in the double-chance market, but what is certainly off-putting is their record against the elite.

They've gone 0-1-11 against members of the top eight so far.

They also lose disrupter-in-chief Joao Gomes to suspension for this one.

Consider cards

Mention of the tenacious midfielder brings me on to the angle I like on this game and that's cards.

While this local affair is neither side's tradtional derby, the fact is both West Brom and Birmingham City haven't been in Premier League for a while now, so this is currently the big showdown in the West Midlands.

It's a fixture which has kept referees busy in recent years with the card make-ups since fans returned after that COVID campaign being 9-7-7-6-4-7-5.

Both teams are in the middle of this season's fair-play table but it's notable that they can both be found in the top four when it comes to fouls committed. In addition, Villa are the second most-fouled side in the league.

The referee, Andy Madley, is actually a smidgen under the average for bookings but he's ahead of the curve when it comes to fouls per game.

Throw in that real need for points - Wolves will be very much aware that the other members of the bottom five play each other this weekend and so won't all drop points, while Villa are playing catch-up in the top-four race - and there's certainly enough to suggest this could be another feisty affair.

I'm a little surprised by some prices in the player-card market and am therefore ready to back one from each side, namely Nelson Semedo and Morgan Rogers.

Semedo has been a regular fouler and has now been carded in seven of his 18 starts this season. He'll likely be up against the in-form Jacob Murphy and raiding full-back Lucas Digne here.

A price of 3/14.00 looks decent.

As for Rogers, he's been carded in eight of 23 domestic games this season which makes his price of 10/34.33 seem juicy.

If this does turn into a bit of a flare-up, having the card regulars onside should put us in a good position. The double pays north of 15/116.00.

Can 12/1 Konsa score again?

For those looking at other Bet Builder options, over 2.5 goals (1.728/11) has landed in 73% of games at Molineux this season, and in 82% of Villa's away matches.

Semedo has committed a foul in 10 of his last 11 appearances and is 8/151.53 to strengthen that stat here.

Finally, for those who like a long shot, consider Ezri Konsa to score at 12/113.00.

Wolves have conceded more set-piece goals than any other Premier League side in 2024/25 and Konsa has scored in the last two meetings of these sides.

With Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres both sidelined, Konsa could well be Villa's go-to man on corners and the like.

Opta fact

Aston Villa won 22 of the first 25 Premier League games in which they led at half-time under Unai Emery (D1 L2) but have gone on to win just four of their last nine (D4 L1).

More Premier League: 10 weekend Opta-based bets!