West Ham v Brentford: Back 12/5 goals bet in London derby with star man Bowen shining

• West Ham and Brentford struggling at wrong end of the table

• Three from three home defeats v three from three away defeats

• Plenty of goals witnessed at the London Stadium and Bees always score

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West Ham v Brentford
Monday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports

Six-pointer difficult to call

It's perhaps way too early to be talking about six-pointers, but if a casual football fan ever wants a definition of what one is, then West Ham v Brentford is a great example.

After Saturday's results both clubs are in the bottom five of the Premier League table, they are available to back at just 11/82.38 and 4/15.00 respectively in the Relegation market, West Ham have lost three from three in the league at the London Stadium, Brentford have lost three from three away from home.

So something has to give, at least one of these London rivals won't have a 100% losing home or away record after Monday night's clash, and the good news for us is that we don't have to make a call on which club that will be.

Some games you look at and you just say to yourself, "nah, I don't fancy this one " (in terms of picking a winner that is). There's absolutely nothing wrong with that, and this is one such game.

The traders at Betfair Towers are probably of the same opinion as they can barely split the two teams in the Match Odds market - West Ham are marginal favourites at 29/202.45, Brentford can be backed at 9/52.80, and the Draw price is the outsider of the three options at 23/103.30.

But it's a six-pointer alright. A win for the Hammers and they move level on points with a fellow relegation candidate, lose and they're six points behind them!

Goals and shots stats point to entertaining affair

Let's get straight to the punch, the bet I'll be having in this game is Over 3.5 Goals at 12/53.40, though if you want to be more cautious then Over 2.5 Goals is very reasonably priced also at 10/111.91.

West Ham' three home games this season have resulted in six, three and three goals being scored, Brentford's three away games have seen four, three and four goals scored. So instantly we can see that Over 2.5 Goals has landed 100% of times in those respective home/away games, and Over 3.5 Goals has paid out 50% of the time.

In addition, Keith Andrews' men have scored in all bar one of their nine games played in all competitions this season - they've scored in every away game - only failing to score in their 1-0 home defeat to title-chasing Manchester City just before the international break.

Nuno Espirito Santo's man haven't been as prolific in front of goal, but on home soil they did manage to score in two of their three games, those being against very decent Chelsea and Crystal Palace teams. And remember, all bar two of the Hammers' games this term were under a different manager (Graham Potter). This will be Nuno's first home game as West Ham boss.

The shots stats also offer encouragement when it comes to believing we'll see goals on Monday night. Going into the weekend fixtures - seven games played for every Premier League club - West Ham had faced 97 shots, that's the second highest in the Premier League. Brentford had faced 92 shots, the third highest.

If that pattern continues then we're going to see lots of shots in this game but sadly the prices don't appeal. For example, 12 Shots on Target is just 23/103.30; I'd be pretty confident that if we get that many shots on target then we'd get at least four goals, so I'd rather back the Over 3.5 Goals option at the bigger price with the knowledge that the bet could land with fewer than 12 shots on target.

Given that I've mentioned goals and shots stats for both sides, it would be remiss of me not to mention the Both Teams to Score price, which is 8/111.73 if you're interested. I think you'll see worse 8/111.73 shots this season if I'm being honest.

Star man Bowen the most likely to score or assist

Whenever there's a game in which I fancy goals to be scored then my golden rule is to look at the price in various markets for the star player on the pitch. If I fancied Liverpool v Bournemouth to have plenty of goals for example, then I'd look to see what price Mo Salah is to score or assist.

I don't think that there's any doubt that the star player on show on Monday night will be West Ham's Jarrod Bowen. In fact I sometimes wonder how much worse off the Hammers would be without him.

The 28-year-old has registered 20+ Premier League goal involvements in three of his four full seasons at West Ham and he continues to be the team's main goalscoring threat this term.

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The Hammers have scored in four of their seven league games played this season and in those four games Bowen has three goals to his name. He also registered an assist in his side's EFL Cup defeat at Wolves.  In February last year, in this exact same fixture, he scored a hat-trick in a 4-2 home win. He also scored in the away fixture that season, a 3-2 loss at the Gtech.

We'd settle for any of those scorelines here obviously, and another Bowen goal would be very welcome - he's 15/82.88 to score anytime - but at an odds-against price I'm more than happy to back West Ham's star man to Score or Assist on Monday night at 11/102.11.

Now read Alan Shearer's Matchday 8 Predictions here.