Tottenham v Brighton: Back Seagulls to show De Zerbi no mercy

Click here for Tottenham v Brighton odds
Saturday 18 April, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Spurs could be weeks away from cataclysmic demotion

If anyone still believes that Tottenham Hotspur are "too good to go down", history tells us otherwise. Nottingham Forest, twice European champions, were out of the top division from 1999 to 2022. Leeds United dropped down to the third tier of English football at one stage, and there have been relatively recent demotions for Newcastle United and former European champions Aston Villa.

In Germany, well-resourced giants like Schalke and Hamburg have stumbled through the trapdoor. River Plate went down in Argentina, Sampdoria dropped in Italy and Santos went down in Brazil.

Roberto De Zerbi only has six games left to save Tottenham, who are currently odds-on to be relegated on the Betfair Exchange. The Italian's first game in charge was a 1-0 defeat at Sunderland, a game in which Tottenham competed well but rarely looked like scoring. To make matters worse, skipper Cristian Romero was ruled out for the rest of the season with injury.

Tottenham are enduring an horrendous run of results. They haven't won a single league match in 2026. At home, they have claimed just two points from their last eight matches. In that eight-game span they didn't keep a clean sheet and they scored multiple goals just once.

The attacking players are all struggling. Dominic Solanke's campaign was ruined by injury, Xavi Simons has delivered a solitary Premier League goal, World Cup finalist Randal Kolo Muani only has five goals in all competitions, while Richarlison has scored just twice in 2026 and Mathys Tel has been a huge disappointment since joining from Bayern. Long-term injuries to James Maddison, Dejan Kulusevski and Mohammed Kudus have also been keenly felt.

Rodrigo Bentancur, Wilson Odobert and Ben Davies are out, and Guglielmo Vicario is a major doubt. Antonin Kinsky deputised at the Stadium of Light, and may need to step in again.

Brighton and Hurzeler have turned season around

It might surprise people to learn that Fabian Hurzeler has collected more points at this stage of his Brighton career than Roberto De Zerbi had (Hurzeler has claimed 107 points from his first 70 games compared to De Zerbi's 97), and the young German has retained the faith of the club's hierarchy despite a topsy-turvy season. Brighton go into this weekend only six points off the Champions League spots, having won five of their last six top-flight matches.

Three of those victories came in the last three away games at Brentford, Sunderland and Burnley. All three wins came with a clean sheet attached, and Brighton have one of the best defensive records outside the Premier League's top two.

Hurzeler admits his relationship with fans hasn't always been rock-solid, but things are on the up, and the 33-year-old says he feels a special connection with the Seagulls. Taking the club back into Europe would put the former St Pauli boss into an even stronger position.

Key centre-back Lewis Dunk is suspended, while Adam Webster and Stefanos Tzimas are long-term injury victims.

Listen to Football...Only Bettor Saturday preview

Brighton the team to back with a bit of insurance

De Zerbi is undoubtedly an incredibly gifted and smart coach, but we have very little evidence that he can get his rather complicated tactical scheme across quickly. Last weekend didn't prove to be an immediate uplift, and Spurs are running into a Brighton team that had found a rich vein of form in recent weeks.

We can back Brighton Draw No Bet (+0 on the Asian Handicap) at 1.855/6 and that seems more than fair. If the game is drawn our stake is returned, but if Brighton win, we do too.

Cards on the cards and Welbeck to hit the target

We can get a 9/52.80 double on the Sportsbook's Bet Builder if we combine Over 4.5 Cards and a Danny Welbeck shot on target.

Welbeck has had at least one shot on target in his last eight starts for the Seagulls, and across the last two outings he's hit the target five times.

Tottenham and Brighton are the top two in the league when it comes to bookings, with 158 cautions between them. There were six cautions in De Zerbi's debut last week (three for each team). If Tottenham start badly and the crowd turn, this could get ugly, and Spurs' players have shown they lack discipline.

Referee Stuart Attwell is happy to dish out that kind of punishment. He has cautioned 92 players in 20 Premier League assignments and has shown three red cards.

Now read our other Premier League previews here!