Sunday Football Tips: Jimmy The Punt's best bets including 12/1 bet in North London Derby

• Obvious card candiate at Elland Road

• Key injury for Arsenal 

• Get with Spurs at big prices

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Leeds vs Aston Villa

Sunday, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports

Ethan Ampadu's price of 5/23.50 to be carded is worth a punt with the Sportsbook. 

Based on his career cards per 90 average of 0.31, this is a touch too big but there's other things to consider here. 

Aston Villa are the most fouled side in the Premier League (13.5 per game) and their midfield duo are the most fouled players in the Villans camp. 

John McGinn draws 1.8 a game and Boubacar Kamara draws 1.7, it is also worth noting Morgan Rodgers draws 1.2 a game in the 10. So, between them, Villa's central trio are drawing 4.7 fouls a game and Ampadu is his sides most carded player (3) and averages the most fouls per game (1.8). 

In the league this season, at least one opposition central midfielder has picked up a booking against Villa in six of 11 their games. Siding with Leeds most likely card candidate appeals at Elland Road. 

Arsenal vs Tottenham

Sunday, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports

Arsenal have been the best team in the Premier League this season. No question about it. 

The Gunners top the real table and the underlying data tables, so they aren't in a false position.

The 2-2 draw at Sunderland doesn't change that, the Black Cats scored twice with their only two shots on target and an expected-goals of 0.44. 

They have also dominated the North London derby recently only losing one of the last nine (W7 D1). 

And yet, I want to go against them this weekend. 

The international break must have been a tough watch for Mikel Arteta. Gabriel Magalhaes limped off with a thigh injury for Brazil during a friendly against Senegal and it is going to keep him out of action for at least a month. Jurrien Timber also took a knock and Riccardo Calafiori left the Italian camp early. 

Timber and Calafiori might be fit for Sunday but Gabriel is the big miss. 

The Gunners have got so much defensive depth but take Gabriel or William Saliba out of that backline and the balance of the team suffers as does the results. 

This season, Gabriel has been ever present but Saliba missed the clash with Nottingham Forest and the first half of the Newcastle game. 

Ange Postecoglou was the Forest manager at the time and Arsenal won 3-0 but at St James' Park, Newcastle led at the interval before Saliba was introduced at half time.  

Last season, Gabriel missed 10 games and Arsenal dropped points in six of them. The Gunners average odds across those games was 1.834/5 but if you take out the trip to Anfield where they were 3.07207/100, that average price drops to 1.594/7. 

Across that sample they drew at Everton, at home to Brentford, Crystal Palace and lost to Bournemouth. 

The season before, Gabriel missed four games. One was the 5-0 home victory against basement boys Sheffield United. The other three was a 2-2 draw at home to Fulham where Arsenal went off at 1.282/7 to win, a 1-0 win at Palace where Arsenal were 1.8910/11 and a 2-1 win vs Nottingham Forest where the Gunners were 1.192/11. 

Arsenal aren't only defensively worse off without Gabriel but they also lose their main set piece threat. 

Half of the Gunners 20 goals this season have come from dead balls, last season 22% of their goals came via them and it was exactly the same percentage the season before. 

So, it is no exaggeration to say Gabriel's absence significantly weakens the Gunners at both ends of the pitch. 

Then factor in the derby element and Tottenham's form on the road and the visitors price of 1.9310/11 +1.25 on the Asian handicap appeals with the Exchange. 

Spurs are unbeaten on their travels in the Premier League (W4 D1), clearly playing their best stuff when the onus isn't on them. 

At 9.08/1 with the Exchange, I also cannot resist a punt on Spurs to win or the 12/113.00 about them to win to nil. 

Thomas Frank's side has kept clean sheets in half of their eight away games. 

Now read Lewis Jones on why now is the time to lay Arsenal for the title