Premier League Big Match Focus: How to back a 17/2 Man Utd win at Southampton

Saturday's early kick-off involves two teams who will hope victories last time out can kick-start their seasons.

The wins arrived in a very different fashion. Southampton had to fight back for their win at Leicester, with Ché Adams' double helping them come from behind, while United got ahead early and counter-attacked well to claim an unlikely victory over a Liverpool side who hadn't lost in the league in 2022.

The winning team on Saturday will climb into the top half, at least temporarily, and will have every chance of still being there at the end of the weekend.

That's if there is a winner - both games between these sides last season ended one apiece, with the home side going ahead in the first half and being pegged back in the second, and a repeat wouldn't be great for either team's hopes of picking up momentum.

The stats

While Southampton shared the spoils with United twice last season, you have to go back to 2016 for the last time they beat the Red Devils.

Not a single member of that Saints team is still at the club, but two of the substitutes are - including James Ward-Prowse, who laid on Charlie Austin's winner at Old Trafford more than six years ago.

To save you counting, that's 12 games in total. Seven draws and five defeats for Southampton, including two of which were painful for different reason.

A 9-0 hammering at Old Trafford in February 2021, when the visitors went a man down inside five minutes, and a 3-2 loss at home a few months earlier when Ralph Hasenhüttl's team led 2-0 at the break.

If we look at games at St Mary's only, the visitors are unbeaten at the ground since Southampton won promotion back to the Premier League in 2012.

James Beattie is the only Southampton player to score a Premier League winner against United at the stadium, which hosted its first game back in 2001.

The season so far

Going beyond the longer-term history of the fixture, things don't look especially pretty for either side. Indeed, the recent wins might only be papering over the cracks unless they can be followed up.

United were unbeaten on the road for the entire 2020-21 season, but defeat at Leicester last autumn prompted the wheels to start coming off.

They lost seven further away games last term, including six in a row under Ralf Rangnick, and that became seven on the spin when Brentford put four goals past Erik ten Hag's United side in their first road game of the current campaign.

In Southampton's case, it was five home defeats from six at the end of last season, with a 1-0 victory over Arsenal the only exception.

Away wins haven't been much easier to come by, though, with last weekend's victory their first on the road since February.

February was also the month in which Hasenhüttl's side last won two in succession in the league.

That came during an impressive eight-game unbeaten run in all competitions, but the 16 league and cup games since have brought 11 reverses.

Southampton v Man Utd prediction

Saturday's game could be a good opportunity for two men looking to recover from some frustrating runs in 2022.

And, with the World Cup just around the corner with places to be played for, both Marcus Rashford and James Ward-Prowse know time is of the essence.

Rashford's goal against Liverpool on Monday was his first since back in January, when he delivered a late winner against West Ham United.

The homegrown forward hasn't looked quite the same since returning from an operation after Euro 2020, but will hope Monday's effort can be the start of a turnaround.

Ward-Prowse has continued to create freely, but last season's Southampton top scorer has seen his output dry up a little as far as goals in front of the home fans are concerned.

He has just one of those in 2022, in the FA Cup, but did at least net away at Tottenham on the opening weekend of the season.

Still, for two teams whose players have struggled in front of goal, we're looking at two worrying defensive records.

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Southampton have just one clean sheet in their last 15, while for the visitors it's one in 14.

With that in mind, backing both teams to score (or, if you want to look at it a little differently, both to concede) could be the way forward. - that's certainly what Opta guru Alex Boyes thinks will happen - check out his Opta related Bets ahead of MD4 here.

Beyond that it may depend on which version of each team we see, but United will have reason to believe their result last time out is something they can build on.

Before the weekend, make sure you read former Manchester United captain Patrice Evra's thoughts following their win over Liverpool, whilst he has his own thoughts on their trip to Southampton - read that here.