English Premier League Tips

Premier League Tipsheet: Six tempting bets for Saturday from Evens to 11/4

  • Stephen Tudor
  • Published on
  • Updated on
  • 3.30 min read
David Moyes, West Ham boss
Moyes' record vs the elite is nothing to write home about

Ste Tudor highlights where the goals and three points will likely be found to get this festive weekend started...


West Ham v Man United (12:30) - Making the difference

The hot-and-cold Hammers and a Manchester United side in perpetual crisis have each faced 15.9 shots per 90 this term and if this trend continues we have to back the hosts to prevail. Erik Ten Hag's misfiring strugglers have the worst chance conversion rate in the top-flight.

Bruno Fernandes has certainly done his bit, creating the most open play chances in the league and his return from suspension is a big plus for the Reds. Him aside though - along with Scott McTominay bizarrely transforming into Gerd Muller every few weeks - who is stepping up and pitching in from United's frontline? Rasmus Hojlund is still seeking his first league goal and it's now 888 minutes and counting. Marcus Rashford's form has fallen off a cliff.

David Moyes' woeful record against the elite has to be considered but in Jarrod Bowen the Hammers have a difference-maker while the Reds do not. The 27-year-old's consolation at Anfield on Wednesday was his 12th of the campaign across all comps.

Back Bowen to score or assist @ 7/52.40

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Fulham v Burnley (15:00) - Cottage industry

Fulham's away form may be poor-to-middling but at Craven Cottage they have averaged a goal every 20 minutes since early November, a prolificacy largely engineered by Willian and Alex Iwobi. If both turn it on this Saturday, you fear for the Clarets.

It will be interesting to see if either are hindered by the absence of Rual Jimenez, the focal point of so much of their creativity. The Mexican's suspension paves the way for a rare start for Carlos Vinicius, a player with as many yellow cards as goals this season, two apiece.

Just one clean sheet all season for Burnley lies at the heart of their struggles though at least there have been some degree of resilience shown on the road. At Brighton last time out Vincent Kompany's men faced 29 shots, 11 on target, yet still somehow emerged with a point.

If the hosts score first, however, all the evidence suggests it's game over. Burnley are the only side yet to pick up a single point after trailing. It doesn't bode well then that Fulham have notched inside half-an-hour in four of their last five outings.

Back Fulham to be ahead at the break @ 5/42.25

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Luton v Newcastle (15:00) - Late show

How the Hatters respond to the awful events of last week, seeing their captain Tom Lockyer suffer a cardiac arrest on the pitch, is the big unknown. What we do know is that Luton have notably raised their game at Kenilworth Road in recent weeks, drawing with Liverpool, putting three past Arsenal, and testing Manchester City to the fullest.

Results may have gone against them but they have only failed to score once at home all season.

Eddie Howe Newc.jpg

Eddie Howe's side are in for a tough afternoon, exacerbated by poor away form that has garnered just five points to date. A cruel succession of injuries hasn't exactly helped and Champions League distractions have been a factor too, but excuses only go so far for a side with genuine top four aspirations.

The form of Bruno Guimaraes and Anthony Gordon - the latter averaging 2.2 shots per game - sways us towards a tight away win but with no great confidence. It should be noted that nine of Newcastle's last 10 league goals have come in the second period, while 61% of Luton's goals have been converted beyond the 65th minute.

Back the second half to have the most goals @ 1/12.00

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Nottingham Forest v Bournemouth (15:00) - Safety first

The sacking of Steve Cooper this week, and the swift appointment of Nuno Espirito Santo puts a very different complexion on this one.

No doubt, Forest's new boss will prioritise making them difficult to break down after conceding 2.5 goals per 90 since their last victory six weeks ago and moreover, the Portuguese gaffer is hardly known for his adventure.

It's telling that in his first two games in charge at Wolves, and in his first three at Spurs, his new sides kept clean sheets.

If any side can find their way past two banks of five right now it's Bournemouth you feel, the Cherries improving their shots average and touches in the final third several times over in recent weeks.

But still, let's give the bearded one some credit. A frustrating afternoon awaits for the visitors.

Back under 2.5 goals and under 4.5 corners for Forest @ 11/43.75

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Tottenham v Everton (15:00) - Naughty list

Poor discipline continues to blight Tottenham's campaign, with the suspensions of Destony Udogie and Yves Bissouma only adding to an already lengthy list of absences. It leaves Ange Postecoglou's options limited with kids making up the numbers on the bench.

At least he has Son Heung-min to turn to, the Korean striker boasting a decent record against Everton with 10 goal involvements from 13 prior engagements. Everton fans will also be dreading the prospect of Richarlison coming back to haunt them, the forward finding his aim of late with three in two.

The Toffees though head to North London in pristine shape, on the back of four consecutive wins in the league, all to nil. A late fitness check on Abdoulaye Doucoure is the only real concern for a side that has uncovered a system that works for them.

Back Spurs to receive the most cards at a generous 15/82.88

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Liverpool v Arsenal (17:30) - Stress-test

The Gunners have conceded the fewest number of shots on target in the top-flight this season while nobody comes close to Liverpool for shots undertaken. In that regard something has got to give in this top-of-the-table clash and it may just be Arsenal's parsimony.

That's because any talk of the Reds being wasteful of late was emphatically shushed by a five-goal spanking of West Ham midweek in the League Cup. Furthermore, Jurgen Klopp's rallying call to the fans post-match will ensure that Anfield is bouncing.

Declan Rice has been superb at protecting his back-four in 2023/24, while the defence itself has hardly been slack, breached on only 15 occasions.

But still, this will be Arsenal's most strenuous test of their title credentials, at a ground where they have previously shown some mental fragility.

On the plus side for Arteta's men, Gabriel Jesus typically rises to the challenge with six goals from nine previous encounters. Gabriel Martinell meanwhile scored and assisted in both games against Liverpool last term.

Back Salah and Jesus 1+ shots on target each, 3+ corners for each team, and 1+ cards for each team @ 5/23.50

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Read Jack Critchley's Saturday Championship tips here

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Stephen Tudor avatar

Stephen Tudor

Stephen Tudor has written extensively about football and sports betting for well over a decade.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.

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