English Premier League

Premier League Tipsheet: Seven tempting bets for Saturday from 5/6 to 5/1

Mo Salah, Liverpool
Top-flight beware, Mo is back

Ste Tudor highlights where the goals and three points will likely be found to get this weekend started...

Brentford v Liverpool (12:30) - A lotta Jota

Training since Tuesday, Mo Salah returns and that is obviously bad news for the Bees. The Egyptian has fired four in four in previous encounters and there is also the small matter of Liverpool's most potent weapon racking up a goal involvement every 79 minutes prior to AFCON.

Yet with Alexander-Arnold and Szoboszlai both coming back from injury in recent weeks only to break down again will Jurgen Klopp err on the side of caution and start Salah on the bench? It's a 50/50 call which leads us instead to Diogo Jota who is on fire at present.

The Portuguese winger has scored five and assisted twice in his last six league outings.

Thomas Frank's strugglers have other concerns closer to home. They have kept just one clean sheet at the Gtech all season and though a 2-0 win at Molineux will have been a significant fillip this is still a defence that cannot be trusted.

The Reds have scored 2+ goals in 75.6% of their fixtures across all comps in 2023/24.

Back Jota to have 4+ shots @ 17/102.70

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Burnley v Arsenal (15:00) - Norwegian good

The Gunners have faced the second-lowest volume of shots per 90 this term while Burnley have committed to the second-lowest number of shots. For all that the Clarets have improved in the final third since the new year - with the joint-best return over a five-game sequence that they've managed all season - chances will likely be at a premium for Vincent Kompany's men.

At the other end, the very opposite may apply, with Arsenal back on the goal trail after enduring a torrid December. Sixteen goals in four is testament to that and Martin Odegaard has especially stood out, putting in a masterclass in their demolition of West Ham last weekend.

Seven chances created, 107 passes completed, and two assists are numbers that speak of a player in pristine form.

The Norwegian schemer has taken on at least one shot from outside the box in each of his last six league appearances.

Back Odegaard to have 1 or more shots on target from outside the box @ 5/61.84

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Fulham v Aston Villa (15:00) - Leno versus the world

1.8 points per game at Craven Cottage is a respectable return for Marco Silva's side and with Armando Broja set to make his full debut and Harry Wilson recovered from a shoulder problem the Cottagers have sufficient attacking threat to trouble a Villa team who are blowing hot and cold.

Andreas Pereira is averaging two key passes per 90 while Wilson is their most fouled player, highlighting his importance.

As for the negatives, a recent trend for facing down a multitude of shots is a concern, particularly at home. Against Everton and Bournemouth, 46 attempts rained in on Bernd Leno in nets and Villa won't be shy in adding to that.

Between them, Douglas Luiz, John McGinn and Leon Bailey have carved out 23 big chances this term, many of them finished off by Ollie Watkins.

The 28-year-old has scored five from his last six visits to the capital.

Back Wilson to be fouled 2 or more times, and Watkins to score or assist @ 13/102.30

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Newcastle v Bournemouth (15:00) - Hope without Pope

The Cherries won the corresponding fixture when Newcastle were at their most injury-ravaged but though that situation has mostly been resolved the Magpies are still without Nick Pope and that's key.

In his 14 games between the sticks this season, Newcastle conceded a goal per game. That has plummeted to 2.5 per 90 in his ten-game absence.

All of which suggests the visitors should fancy their chances of getting something at St James Park, even if they are winless in five. Andoni Iraola's men last failed to get on the scoresheet away from home way back in October.


Yet it's the hosts who have form on their side, showing definite signs of emerging strong again from a winter of discontent.
In their last three outings Newcastle have scored every 27 minutes.

It feels like Anthony Gordon is due a goal here and the same goes for getting booked. Only three players have seen yellow more often this season and five of his eight cautions have been received in the North-East.

Back BTTS and Gordon to be shown a card @ 5/16.00

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Nottingham Forest v West Ham (15:00) - Hammers to fall

These teams treated us to a thriller back in November but it's hard to see how the visitors can keep up their end of the bargain should we hope for a repeat.

Passive and moribund, the Hammers have drawn three and lost two in 2024, the comprehensive manner of the defeats particularly damning.

In their six-goal deconstruction at the hands of Arsenal last weekend, David Moyes' side gave up the ghost from the opening whistle, managing a pitiful xG of 0.2, and though they still reside in the top half of the table this has been coming for some time.

All season long they have lacked ambition in possession and played on the back foot when out of it, as demonstrated by having the second lowest high turnover ratio in the league.

Per defensive action they allow the opposition an average of 17 passes.

Forest hardly fare any better in both metrics but at least at home they usually show some fight and Anthony Elanga epitomizes this, reserving his most impactful performances for the City Ground. The winger has 11 goal involvements to date.

Don't expect many corners in this one. West Ham have averaged 4.2 per 90, Forest a mere 3.7.

Back under 9.5 corners @ 6/52.20

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Tottenham v Wolves (15:00) - Goals galore

The loss of Matheus Cunha is a substantial one for Gary O'Neil, the Brazilian international boasting 12 goal involvements in 12, but still Wolves can take a lot of heart from their last two visits to the capital, putting four apiece past Brentford and Chelsea. Spurs meanwhile have kept just one clean sheet from their last 15.

Even so, it's Tottenham who are fancied here and unsurprisingly so given they have scored 2+ goals in their last nine league showings. With Sarr back post-AFCON, and Son Heung-min back post-Asian Cup - and crucially with injuries to key players no longer a hindrance - this is a side that will always afford the opposition space and chances but only so they can be out-scored.

The last six games involving Tottenham have served up 4.3 goals per 90.

Back over 3.5 goals @ 6/52.20

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Man City v Chelsea (17:30) - Control over chaos

Forget about that frankly ludicrous 4-4 draw that played out at Stamford Bridge in mid-November. That was Chelsea at their chaotic best and worst, encountering a team that usually takes full and ruthless advantage of the latter.

Instead, and entirely against type, City allowed themselves to be dragged down into the madness. We will likely not see that happen again for some time.

In part, that's because Kevin De Bruyne is back, orchestrating proceedings and exerting control. The brilliant Belgian has assisted in each of his four comeback games, despite only starting one of them. Moreover, the midfielder tends to go big against Chelsea, still desperate to punish them for selling him a full decade ago.

City should be fancied to score early at the Etihad because they usually do, converting within half an hour in ten of their 11 home games this season.

Another likelihood is that Mauricio Pochettino's men pick up a handful of bookings.

Only Sheffield United come anywhere close to the Blues regarding the volume of yellow cards they have received. It works out at a sinful 3.1 per 90.

Back De Bruyne to score or assist, City to be ahead at the break, and Chelsea most cards @ 2/13.00

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Read Jack Critchley's Saturday Championship Tips here

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.