Championship Opta Stats: Ten bets for Saturday afternoon

Jack Critchley
Published on 15 Feb 2024 at 11:16
3:00 min read

Jack Critchley has used the latest Opta Stats to select his best bets in the Championship for Saturday afternoon's fixtures...

Mowbray to beat his former employers
Canaries to continue singing at Carrow Road
Plethora of goals in Swansea
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Birmingham vs Sunderland

Second consecutive away defeat for the Black Cats

Opta Stat:

"Sunderland have only won one of their last 15 away league matches played on Saturdays (D7 L7), a 3-1 win over QPR in September 2023"

Birmingham were deserved winners in midweek with Tony Mowbray guiding his side to a much-needed victory over one of his former clubs. It was just Brum's second victory since mid-December, although they had played pretty well against both Sheffield Wednesday and West Brom. Paik Seung-Ho looks to be an exciting addition and despite missing a couple of presentable chances, Tyler Robert's return to fitness gives them a boost in attacking areas. Birmingham required John Ruddy to make a match-winning save in the dying minutes, yet they'd probably done enough to win the game prior to the veteran's moment of brilliance.

Sunderland have had less time to prepare for this clash and Mick Beale will be looking for a response to his side's 1-0 defeat at Huddersfield. The Black Cats have won just once on the road since the end of October and the majority of their away matches are very tight. There is unlikely to be much between these sides, yet the hosts have looked sharper going forward and the visitors' away form isn't convincing enough to make them favourites.

Betfair Bet:

Back Birmingham Draw No Bet at 6/52.20

Leicester vs Middlesbrough

Boro to create chances at the KP

Opta Stat:

"Leicester City have won 14 of their last 17 home league matches (D1 L2), including 13 this season. It's their most in a season since winning 17 in 2013-14 when they won the Championship"

Leicester were comfortable winners in midweek and weren't particularly troubled by Sheffield Wednesday. There was a suggestion that the Foxes took their foot off the gas in the second as Enzo Maresca made changes in order to keep his squad fresh. Leicester home games have been very entertaining this season with the hosts netting 3+ goals in five of their last seven matches here. Although their defence has looked reasonably assured this year, they have conceded in five of their last seven matches here.

Middlesbrough were extremely unlucky on Wednesday night as they fell to a 2-1 defeat at Deepdale. Boro created several chances, however, a combination of uncertain goalkeeping and a lack of a clinical frontman held them back. Boro beat Leicester in the reverse fixture, yet they look far weaker than when these sides met back in November. Carrick's men will still play with plenty of attacking intent so there's every chance they get on the scoresheet.

Betfair Bet:

Back Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS at 9/101.90

Stoke vs Coventry

Entertaining 90 minutes in Staffordshire

Opta Stat:

"Coventry City have won eight of their last 12 away league games against Stoke City (D1 L3), winning three of their last four (D1)"

Stoke picked up a much-needed victory in midweek which has temporarily eased their relegation worries. Sadly for the Potters, Huddersfield are one of the division's in-form sides and Steven Schumacher's side cannot afford to drop any more points. They have shown a bit more attacking intent recently and should be able to take advantage of Coventry's uncertain defending.

The Sky Blues rescued a point at the death against Plymouth on Wednesday night. Many Coventry fans were relieved to see their side come away with something and they'll be hoping for a slightly better performance on Saturday afternoon. Mark Robins' side have shown plenty going forward, yet they are leaky at the back. The visitors haven't kept a clean sheet in any of their last eight and that run could easily continue.

Betfair Bet:

Back Over 2.5 Goals in Stoke vs Coventry at 4/51.80

Norwich vs Cardiff

Canaries to ease past impotent Bluebirds

Opta Stat:

"Since the start of December, only Blackburn Rovers (9) have lost more Championship matches than Cardiff City (8), with the Bluebirds netting the joint-fewest goals in that time (9, level with Rotherham)"

Despite some fans grumbling over David Wagner's team selection, Norwich still managed to beat out-of-form Watford in midweek. The Canaries are free-flowing going forward and with Josh Sargent back in the XI, they possess one of the division's most potent frontmen. Jon Rowe's injury is a significant blow, however, the hosts should have enough creativity to get the better of underwhelming opposition.

Cardiff were defeated by West Brom and failed to find the back of net. This is nothing to be ashamed by as many teams have failed to breach WBA's watertight defence this campaign, however, the bigger picture suggests that the visitors are struggling in the final third. Erol Bulut's side have netted just twice across their last five and haven't managed to get on the scoresheet in four of their last seven.

Betfair Bet:

Back Norwich to Win and Over 1.5 Goals at 5/42.25

Bristol City vs QPR

Buoyant Robins to pick up a third consecutive victory

Opta Stat:

"Bristol City have won five of their last nine league games at Ashton Gate (D1 L3), beating Southampton last time out to end their 25-match unbeaten run in all competitions"

Liam Manning has taken a little longer than expected to mould his Bristol City side, however, the Robins appear to have adapted to his style with the players perfectly executing the former MK Dons boss' gameplan on Tuesday night. They've won seven of their last twelve at Ashton Gate and will fancy their chances of improving that record this weekend.

QPR were disappointing in midweek as they failed to score against previously out-of-form Stoke. Marti Cifuentes shuffled his pack and we are likely to see Michael Frey and Lucas Andersen come back into the XI here. They'll be aiming to keep former defender Rob Dickie quiet, however, they might just struggle to contain the confident hosts. Expect a tight one.

Betfair Bet:

Back Bristol City to Win at 19/201.95

Millwall vs Sheffield Wednesday

Owls to take advantage of the Lions' woes

Opta Stat:

"Following a 1-0 win over Charlton in their most recent league trip to London, Sheffield Wednesday are looking to win consecutive league games in the capital for the first time since August 2017"

Millwall's decision to sack Gary Rowett is beginning to look a little odd. Joe Edwards looked like a solid appointment and there was some initial optimism, yet the recent performances have been disappointing. Their response to falling behind has been underwhelming and they now find themselves in a relegation battle. Having scored just eight times in their last 11 games, it's hard to make a case the hosts at such a short price.

Sheffield Wednesday were defeated at Leicester in midweek, yet their second half performance was much improved. The Owls have struggled for goals, yet they have made some decent Janaury additions and that may just make the difference in this tight and potentially cagey six-pointer.

Betfair Bet:

Back Sheffield Wednesday Draw No Bet at 31/202.55

Preston vs Blackburn

Entertaining Lancashire derby

Opta Stat:

"Preston North End have won two of their last three league games against fellow Lancashire sides (D1), as many as they had in their previous eight combined (W2 D1 L5)"

Preston didn't deserve to win in midweek, yet they are proving clinical in the final third. With Liam Millar, Emil Riis and Will Keane providing threats, it's hard to imagine Ryan Lowe's side drawing a blank here. The hosts tend to make quick starts too, and they've netted a first half goal in each of their last five matches.

Blackburn are still acclimatising to life under John Eustace. The new boss was unable to get one over on his former employers, but his side created some decent opportunities. Rovers' away form is a little ropey, but we can expect a decent attacking display from the visitors.

Betfair Bet:

Back Over 2.5 Goals at 20/231.87

Huddersfield vs Hull

Lively Terriers to edge a tight game

Opta Stat:

"Huddersfield Town have won their last six home league Yorkshire derbies, keeping five clean sheets in a row. Their last home derby defeat was in April 2021 vs Barnsley (0-1)"

Huddersfield have given themselves a little bit of breathing space at the bottom of the table and they come into this game five points clear of the relegation zone. Under John Worthington, the hosts have been much better and they are unbeaten in five of their last six. Having outshot both Southampton and Sunderland, the West Yorkshire outfit should produce another decent display on Saturday afternoon.

It's difficult to know what to make of Hull at the moment. The Tigers have a record of W3 L3 across their last six game, yet each of those victories came by a single goal margin and they've taken fewer than nine shots in three of their last four. Nevertheless, they were better against Rotherham, and should be competitive here. They don't have a good record in Yorkshire derbies and with just four away wins since the end of September, they look a little short on the 90 minute market.

Betfair Bet:

Back Huddersfield or Draw Double Chance and BTTS at 6/42.50

Rotherham vs Watford

Hornets' individual quality to shine through

Opta Stat:

"Rotherham United have won one of their last 19 Championship matches (D7 L11), a 1-0 home win over Middlesbrough in December"

Rotherham had tightened up under Leam Richardson and were starting to become tougher to beat. However, their small squad is a hindrance and playing three times in the space of seven days is far from ideal. Although they have improved, they were hammered by the Hornets in the reverse fixture and having allowed Hull to take 18 shots on Tuesday night, they could be vulnerable once again.

Watford are on a wretched run of form, however, Val Ismael's side have shown signs of life in the final third recently. They created chances against Leicester and netted twice against Norwich in midweek. They have a bigger squad and rotation is unlikely to cause issues.

Betfair Bet:

Back Over 1.5 Watford Goals at 1/12.00

Swansea vs Ipswich

Another goal-laden game for the Swans

Opta Stat:

"Swansea City have lost all three of their home league games under Luke Williams so far, scoring just once and conceding eight goals"

Swansea aren't safe from relegation, however, they have had a tough run of fixtures and they'll be glad to get this game out of the way. The hosts have been involved in some crazy games against top six opposition this season with their 11 matches clocking up a combined 42 goals. Swansea will create chances, yet they can be opened up far too easily.

Ipswich reignited their automatic promotion hopes on Wednesday and with Southampton hitting a rocky patch, they will know the importance of picking up maximum points in this one. They haven't been brilliant defensively in recent weeks, yet they appear to have rediscovered their goalscoring touch.

Betfair Bet:

Back Over 2.5 Goals at 8/111.73

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Recommended bets

Back Birmingham Draw No Bet (vs Sunderland) @ 6/52.20

Back Norwich to Win and Over 1.5 Goals (vs Cardiff) @ 5/42.25

Back Over 2.5 Goals in Swansea vs Ipswich @ 8/111.73

Jack Critchley's 2023-24 P/L

Staked: 288.00

Returned: 277.16

P/L: -10.84

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