Premier League Tipsheet: Five terrific bets for Tuesday from Evens to 13/5

Eddie Howe, Newcastle boss
Howe is thirsty for a top six spot

Ste Tudor highlights where the goals and three points will likely be found this Tuesday evening...


Newcastle v Everton (19:30) - That's entertainment

It's official, Eddie Howe's Newcastle are more entertaining than Keven Keegan's at their maddest pomp, in terms of goals scored and conceded at least.

Even at their rollercoaster extreme, the Magpies of the early Nineties produced 2.9 goals per game. Three-quarters through 2023/24, the present bunch have offered up 3.9.

Moreover, it's a trend only going one way. Since Christmas, games featuring Newcastle have conjured up a remarkable five goals per 90.

It's a high volume that can partly be attributed to Alexander Isak's goal-scoring, the Swede bagging seven in eight, along with Anthony Gordon providing constant menace down the left.

At the back meanwhile, a defence plagued by injuries has consistently been porous. Again, since Christmas, they have conceded every 35 minutes.

Can the Toffees take advantage of this ongoing generosity? It feels doubtful given how wasteful they are on the road, racking up 72 shots and creating eight big chances in their last six away games, all for the meagre return of two goals.

One of them, on Saturday, required a goalkeeping blunder.

No, the way to go here is to focus on Everton's defence, a rearguard that has been breached 2+ times in nine of their 15 aways this term. Newcastle have scored 2+ in ten of their 15 at St James Park.

Howe's men have also averaged 5.1 corners at home since Christmas.

Back Newcastle to score 2+ goals, Newcastle 5+ corners, and Everton 2+ cards @ 9/43.25

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Nottingham Forest v Fulham (19:30) - Comebacks and foul play

No Premier League player has scored more goals in 2024 than Rodrigo Muniz (8) and his most recent effort on Saturday was certainly special, a scissor-kick that completed a two-goal comeback for the Cottagers at Bramall Lane.

In truth, Marco Silva's side should never have needed such dramatics to secure a point, accruing 24 shots, 17 inside the box, and hitting the woodwork twice from 74% overall possession.

Similar output at the City Ground should see them extend on an eight-game streak that's seen them on the score-sheet.

As for Forest, Morgan Gibbs-White once again came to the fore at the weekend, adding a sixth assist of the season, five of which have come from open play. With 2.0 chances per 90 created in 2023/24, the attacking midfielder is so often Forest's difference-maker. 1.9 key passes per game is further testimony to that.

The most surprising detail of Forest's hard-fought draw at the weekend was that Ryan Yates didn't commit a single foul, their captain responsible for 43 in 15 starts this term.

The 26-year-old was booked when these sides met in early December, a 5-0 rout. Expect this one to be much closer.

Back BTTS and Yates to commit 1 or more fouls in each half @ 13/53.60

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Bournemouth v Crystal Palace (19:45) - Wait and see

Palace had the better of the xG at the City Ground on Saturday despite ceding most of the possession to Forest and on a weekly basis we are increasingly seeing Oliver Glasner's mandate take good effect.

The form of 19-year-old Adam Wharton is deserving of recognition while it's telling that the Eagles have scored first in each of their last six outings. When they develop the ability to see out games, they'll be in business.

Solanke.jpg

That's easier said than done when facing the Cherries, Andoni Iraola's men notching late-on in each of their last three home fixtures. Only the current top five and Newcastle have scored more goals beyond the break in 2023/24 and with Dominic Solanke boasting two in two, and Antoine Semenyo flying, the hosts are fancied here.

The South Coast club may have to be patient however against a Palace side that last conceded in a first half back in early February.

Back the second half to have the most goals @ 1/12.00

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Burnley v Wolves (19:45) - Hosts turning a corner

Whether Burnley's turn-around in fortunes is substantial enough to see them ultimately safe remains to be seen but certainly they're in a better place right now, unbeaten in three and scoring two goals apiece across their mini-revival.

The Clarets are strengthened further by the return of David Datro Fofana on Tuesday, after being ineligible to play at Stamford Bridge. The Ivorian striker has been involved in 16.1% of Burnley's league goals this term despite making only six starts.

Regarding the visitors, they are hot-and-cold merchants presently, one of their few constants being a low corner-count for the season. Only Sheffield United and Forest have won fewer.

English Premier League - Overs Unders 1.5

Team Games 1.5 %
West Ham 34 27 79
Burnley 34 27 79
Tottenham 32 27 84
Bournemouth 33 26 79
Liverpool 33 26 79
Aston Villa 34 25 74

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It is tempting to head to the over/under market and go for goals at Turf Moor, given that 90% of Burnley's fixtures in 2023/24 have produced over 1.5, but it's backing a lack of set-pieces where the odds are more enticing.

Back under 9.5 corners @ 11/102.11

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West Ham v Tottenham (20:15) - Goals all-but-guaranteed

Goals are where it's at with this one though, with a revitalized Hammers firing 2.6 per 90 in their last five and Spurs averaging 2.07 per 90 away from home this term.

Furthermore, in the head to head, the last time this contest ended 0-0 Gareth Bale was playing off Jermain Defoe up front for Tottenham while future Wolves boss Gary O'Neil was bolstering West Ham's midfield.

It may also be pertinent that Spurs' three midweek fixtures this season have finished 4-2, 3-2 and 2-1. That's a goal every 19 minutes.

Identifying who might be responsible for extending this profligacy leads us to James Maddison who reserves his showy displays for North London and his productivity for elsewhere. Ten of the midfielder's 12 goal involvements this season have come away from home.

For the Hammers, Jarrod Bowen is an obvious shout, the England international's strike at the weekend putting him one shy of Paolo Di Canio's return of 16 top-flight goals, a record for the club.

Bowen's 2.3 shots per 90 is also of interest.

Back Maddison to score or assist and 3 or more shots for Bowen @ 5/23.50

Bet here

Now read betting expert Lewis Jones' defence of Brentford here


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