Jones Knows Notebook: Back Brentford to win all remaining home games

Thomas Frank - Brentford boss
In a false league position: Brentford can climb table

Sky Sports' betting expert Lewis Jones - aka 'Jones Knows' - is back with his weekly notebook, where he makes a case for Brentford to have a strong end to the campaign and win all their remaining home fixtures...

  • Brentford are in a false league position

  • Back them to win all remaining home games

  • Everton are the Buzz Killington at the goal-frenzy party

  • Read Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here

  • I'm buzzing for Brentford's home win chances

    The league table doesn't lie apparently. Sorry, it does.

    Just look at Brentford. I'm convinced they're in a false position in 15th place.

    According to expected goal difference - which is calculated by subtracting a team's expected goals against from their expected goals for - they have been the ninth best team in the Premier League this season.

    Anyone who watched them duff up Manchester United on Saturday will concur. Brentford hit the woodwork four times, saw a goal disallowed for offside and had 31 shots. Also, Brentford's 85 touches inside United's penalty box was the most by a team in any top-flight match over the last three seasons.

    That's why there has never been any panic at a club about relegation. They swear by the underlying numbers.

    At a club like Brentford, who are so guided by the performance metrics, that game against United will have felt like a 7-0 win. I'm expecting confidence levels and general morale to be bouncing as Thomas Frank was rightly delighted on Saturday despite only getting a point.

    With Ivan Toney and now Bryan Mbeumo back - they could start together for the first time in 329 days on Wednesday night at home to Brighton - Brentford are a team to invest in during the run-in, especially at home.

    Mbeumo will huge impact on making Brentford more clinical in front of goal. Since promotion they have been notoriously strong when he plays. In 26 home games he's started since the start of last season, Brentford have only lost three of those matches, winning 13 - that's a 50% win strike rate. To flip that, they've lost five of the seven games he's missed.

    Brentford have four home games left this season - and I'm going to be rolling stakes over every week in the hope of them winning all four.

    It starts with Brighton, where they can be backed at 2.56/4 on the Betfair Exchange to win, before Sheffield United on April 13, Fulham on May 4 and Newcastle on May 19. So, the plan is to back them to beat Brighton, roll over the stakes onto the Sheffield United, if that wins, roll it over again and so on, so on.

    With a little wriggle room for price movements, I'd anticipate judged by my price predictions - if successful - the bet should pay around 25/126.00.

    Back Brentford to beat Brighton @ 2.68/5

    Bet here

    Everton are the Premier League's Buzz Killington

    Everton would be no fun at parties.

    In a season where Premier League remain producing goals at a rate never seen in this league with the per game average still trending at a record level of 3.24 goals per 90 minutes, Everton are swimming against that tide.

    A relatively stout defence, added to misfiring strikers, have seen their match total match goals average stand at 2.45 - it's the lowest in the Premier League and the only team to average under that key 2.5 goals line. No team have been involved in more under 2.5 goals games this season than Everton with 15 of their 29 going against the grain of goals and delivering two or fewer goals.

    Everton remind me of a character from Family Guy called Buzz Killington who turns up to parties where everyone is having a wild time with their tops off and all he wants to do is sit down, talk about a bridge or get out his coin collection. A party pooper.

    With those numbers in mind, my eyes have been drawn to the 2.526/4 on offer from the Betfair Exchange about Everton's clash with Newcastle producing two or fewer goals on Tuesday.

    Newcastle's games are averaging with 4.33 total match goals across their last 15 matches, hence the high goal expectancy here - but Everton tend to drag the goal return down. In a game they'll be keeping it nice and tight in, I'd be surprised if goals flow at the usual Newcastle rate.

    Back Under 2.5 Goals in Newcastle v Everton @ 2.526/4

    Bet here

    Now read our best Premier League tips this midweek!

    Follow Lewis Jones' Premier League tips and predictions across Sky Sports each week.

    Football... Only Bettor. Listen to the latest episode now

New customers can get £20 in Free Bets!

New customers who sign up here, can earn up to £20 in free bets when they place a £5 wager. T&Cs apply.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.

Discover the latest articles