Premier League Tipsheet: Five tempting Tuesday bets from 9/4 to 6/1

• Gunners to gain early advantage

• Both teams to score at Kenilworth Road

• Villa set to extend terrific home form

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Nottingham Forest v Arsenal (19:30) - Rehab part two

Firing five past an abject Crystal Palace was much-needed therapy for the Gunners as they worked through issues that had built up over five troublesome weeks.

Their FA Cup third round loss at home to Liverpool meant Mikel Arteta's title-chasers had won only one in seven and that's a lot closer to 'slump' than 'hiccup'. Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard looked wrung-out. Gabriel Martinelli had lost his way. There were genuine grounds for concern.

How far down the road to recovery does a routine thrashing of poor opposition take them? We will find out at the City Ground but certainly two goals for Martinelli was a huge plus and it's also pertinent that their first two vs Palace came from corners.

Arsenal have scored the most goals from set-pieces this term (13) while Forest have conceded the most (11).

Deprived of four first-team regulars due to AFCON and with Moussa Niakhate injured, Forest have been decidedly patchy after initially showing signs of improvement under new boss Nuno Espirito Santo. This has told most at the back though that's not a new development with only one clean sheet kept at home all season. They have conceded two per 90 in their last 10 fixtures.

Don't rule out an early strike here for the visitors. Arsenal have converted inside 20 minutes in three of their last four away games in the league.

Fulham v Everton (19:45) - Toffees to edge it

The Cottagers are unbeaten in five against Everton but still, a tight away win is fancied here.

Marco Silva's men have found goals hard to come by of late, scoring every 180 minutes across their last 10 outings. In their 10 preceding games they were banging them in every 37.5 minutes.

Raul Jiminez's sending off in December, and his subsequent suspension, didn't help, nor has losing Alex Iwobi to AFCON, and though Willian and Perreira are both capable of turning up and influencing proceedings this is a team wholly lacking a cutting edge up front.

Moreover, Fulham have failed to score in nine top-flight fixtures this term, a league low.

Not that Everton are particularly sharper up top, scoring just twice in 2024 so far and with Dominic Calvert-Lewin enduring a sustained drought. The 26-year-old last scored in October.

A better organized back-line is the determining factor, with the Toffees keeping seven clean sheets in their last 12. Jarrod Branthwaite and James Tarkowski have been largely superb all season, the latter winning 3.9 aerial duels per 90. So much of Fulham's threats lie down the flanks and crosses are bread and butter to those two.

Don't expect a goal-fest at the Cottage. When they recently met in the League Cup there were just three shots on target throughout.

Luton v Brighton (19:45) - Happy Gilmour

A FA Cup hat-trick for Joao Pedro puts the Brazilian just one goal behind Erling Haaland for the season across all comps, and he's an obvious threat to consider at Kenilworth Road.

The in-form striker has bagged three in his last five meetings with the Hatters.

Billy Gilmour too is a stand-out, his sublime showings of late resulting in multiple Man of the Match awards for the Seagulls. Knitting everything together in the middle, the Scot's 92.5% pass completion rate is the highest of any non-defender for Brighton and that is increasingly making him a target.

As for Brighton as a whole, a bit of caution is advised because though they have emphatically put Stoke and Sheffield United to the sword in the cup, their league output has been mixed. Just one win in six and four draws makes them a difficult side to pin down at present.

Luton meanwhile last failed to get on the score-sheet in the league back in early November at Old Trafford and though their 96th minute cup winner at Goodison at the weekend may have been dramatic it should not have surprised. On 15 occasions in 2023/24, Rob Edwards' men have scored beyond the 75th minute.

Crystal Palace v Sheff Utd (20:00) - Selhurst slog

The Eagles have picked up just 0.9 ppg at Selhurst Park all season while the blunt Blades have the worst away record in the top-flight.

The hosts have failed to keep a clean sheet in the league in their last 10, conceding 2.1 goals-per-90 in that period. Against Arsenal last week they plea-bargained from the get-go, offering precisely nothing.

United meanwhile have the worst goal difference, and considerably so. They have taken on the fewest number of shots, kept the fewest clean sheets, and have the second worst disciplinary record.

Quality will be at a premium in South London this Tuesday.

Given the porous nature of their defences a few goals is always possible but low chance conversion rates for both suggests not, and Jefferson Lerma epitomises this. The midfielder has the highest xG of any top-flight player yet to score.

The creative endeavours of Eberechi Eze and James McAtee intrigue but this will be a game of attrition.

Aston Villa v Newcastle (20:15) - Home bankers

The Magpies may be winning their cup games to nil away from home, but in the Premier League their woeful record on their travels is stark and damning, for all that a raft of injuries partly excuses it.

Eddie Howe's men have not won beyond St James Park since trouncing Sheffield United by eight in September. Since December they have shipped in three at Everton and four at Spurs and Liverpool.

As bad as Newcastle are away, Villa are excellent at home, unbeaten for coming up to a year now and averaging 2.9 goals per 90 in the Midlands in 2023/24. In 900 minutes-plus at Villa Park they have been behind for just 43 of them.

Encouraged by the Holte End to shoot, Douglas Luiz has scored all six of his season's haul at home, three of them before the break, and speaking of which Villa give themselves a great platform to succeed - home and away - by being so difficult to navigate in the first half of contests. All term long, they have conceded only nine in that period.

Expect Ollie Watkins and/or Alexander Isak to feature prominently, the former just one shy of reaching 50 top-flight strikes, the latter boasting 0.79 goals per 90 this season.

Now read Lewis Jones' Aston Villa v Newcastle preview here

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