Aston Villa v Newcastle: 5/1 Alex Moreno to grab assist

• Villa boast ridiculous home PL form (P17 W16 D1 L0)

• Alex Moreno overpriced to register assist @ 5/16.00

• Moreno starred in Villa's 3-0 win over Toon last season

• Read Betfair's new 90 minute payout offer here

Aston Villa vs Newcastle
Tuesday, 20:15
Live on TNT Sport

Cast your minds back to the opening day. Aston Villa had just been beaten 5-1 by Newcastle whilst Emi Buendia and Tyrone Mings both suffered serious injuries within a few days another.

A season of full of optimism at Villa Park looked to have been misplaced. Yet, those taking that initial view were spot-on. That hammering at St James' Park has proven to be an abnormality.

Villa took 43 points from their next 20 Premier League matches, have announced themselves as top-four contenders and host Newcastle on Tuesday evening with a 14-point gap separating the two teams.

They are expected to widen the gap according to the markets, where they have been made favourites at 2.01/1 on the Betfair Exchange.

Considering this is a team that have won 16 of their last 17 Premier League matches at Villa Park, it's a price that will look rather attractive to many punters hunting a bet on this encounter.

This Villa team are a very trustworthy outfit having scored in their last 24 Premier League home games since a 2-0 defeat to Chelsea in October 2022. They know how to win.

Meanwhile, Newcastle arrive with back-to-back away wins in the FA Cup at Sunderland and Fulham but their road form in the Premier League has been alarming. The defeat at Liverpool made it six defeats on the spin away from St James' Park during a campaign where they've taken just five points away from home - only Sheffield United have taken fewer (2).

Eddie Howe's men undoubtedly possess the pace, power and quality in attack to seriously test Aston Villa's aggressive high line but the balance in their overall play still remains way short of the levels they hit last season.

Investing in a pro-Villa angle certainly looks the way to play this one.

Alex Moreno is here to assist you...

Alex Moreno is a chief creator in this Aston Villa side with Unai Emery allowing his left-sided player a huge amount of licence to provide the attacking width down that flank.

Since joining in January last year, when it comes to Premier League defenders only Ben Chilwell averages more touches in the opposition box per 90 than Moreno (3.46).

Once in the final third, he's creating chances, with his per-90 average at 1.49 chances created to a backdrop of 0.18 of expected assists - a metric which gauges the quality of chance he's providing to his teammates.

Those numbers rank him alongside the likes of Andrew Robertson and Pervis Estupinian for creativity, which, admittedly, isn't especially appealing when assessing his assist price of 5/16.00 with the Betfair Sportsbook.

However, Moreno has taken a while to hit his straps this season after missing the first quarter of the campaign with injury but the signs regarding the likelihood of him registering an assist are very positive having created seven chances for Villa in his last four starts across all competitions.

That 5/16.00 becomes a bet when assessing his performance in this fixture in April where Villa ran out impressive 3-0 winners - a game where Moreno did grab an assist. He ran riot down the left flank that day, in total creating three chances during the game to a very healthy backdrop of 0.71 worth of expected assists.

With confidence flying in the home ranks at Villa Park, Moreno rates as a fine wager to record his first assist of the season.

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