English Premier League

Premier League Tipsheet: Five great bets for Sunday's curtain call from 10/11 to 15/2

Mikel Arteta, Arsenal boss
Rumours of a calmer Arteta prove to be unfounded

Ste Tudor highlights where the goals and three points will likely be found across five end-of-season Premier League clashes.

All matches kick-off at 16:00.

Arsenal v Everton - A win in vain?

Manchester City may have the points advantage going into the final day but with that comes the bulk of the pressure. From Arsenal's perspective they must simply do what they always do on the last day of the season, then hope against hope that something miraculous occurs at the Etihad.

And what they always do is win. The Gunners have gone into each of the last 12 summers victorious, last losing in their concluding fixture in 2005. Last May, Wolves were comfortably dispatched 5-0. The season before, Everton were walloped 5-1.

Can history repeat itself here? Again from Arsenal's perspective that appears likely, with Kai Havertz boasting 14 goal involvements in 13 outings and Leandro Trossard bagging six in nine across all comps.

In 2024, Mikel Arteta's men have averaged three goals per 90 in the Premier League.

But then we acknowledge Everton's form of late, unbeaten in five, winning four of them to nil. Possessing a solid rearguard all season - Tarkowski and co have been breached seven times fewer than fourth-placed Aston Villa - this is a defence in full working order, conceding only once in their last seven-and-a-half hours of football.

Arsenal will win this Sunday but it will be anything but comfortable. Conversely, though, an early strike appeals with eight of Everton's last 12 conceded coming before the break.

Brentford v Newcastle - Strikers on top

A four-goal therapy session at Turf Moor a fortnight back doesn't alter the fact that Newcastle are highly susceptible to defensive disaster-classes away from St James' Park. Last season Eddie Howe's side lost three times on the road. Wednesday night's 3-2 reverse at Old Trafford was their 11th away defeat this time out.

Moreover, Brentford have the ways and means to punish such flaws, with Yoane Wissa and Bryan Mbeumo compensating for Ivan Toney's 909 minute goal-drought. Wissa has notched seven in 12. Last weekend he scored and assisted from the bench.

For the visitors, Alexander Isak is the obvious main threat, especially with Anthony Gordon nursing a sore ankle and not a certainty to start.

The Swede has notched 0.82 goals per 90 this term, averaging 1.6 shots on target. Five of his six away from home have been converted after the break.

English Premier League - Top 6 Shots On Target

Games involving the Magpies in 2023/24 have produced a goal every 23 minutes and with in-form strikers at each end, and defences decimated by injuries, we can expect that trend to continue. Let's rule out a draw too with only 15% of final day games in the Premier League this past decade ending in stalemate.

Brighton v Man United - Best of a bad bunch

The Seagulls have won only one of their last nine. United last won away from Old Trafford in mid-February. It's fair to say that both clubs will be keen to draw a veil over this season, regroup, and most importantly reclaim a full roster of players.

For the hosts, their loss mid-week to Chelsea was a familiar tale, racking up a healthy number of shots but almost all of them wasted or wayward.

In their last eight contests, Brighton have accrued 116 attempts on goal, converting just five times. It was hoped that Joao Pedro returning from injury might address this season-long complaint. Instead he's been as remiss as anyone.

As for the visitors, there's no shortage of negatives to focus on but a stand-out performance from Bruno Fernandes versus Newcastle this week caught the eye.

The player who has created a league-high of 113 chances this term, accruing an xA of 10.2, ended last season strongly and we could be seeing similar here.

Running the show against the Magpies, Fernandes won seven ground duels, had an 82% pass completion rate, and took on two shots, one on target.

Burnley v Nottingham Forest - Uber caution

With their fate sealed in North London last weekend Burnley bid farewell to the top-flight with a fixture they desperately hoped would be a relegation decider.

Which for Forest it still is, sort of, Nuno Espirito Santo's side just needing to navigate a substantial goal difference advantage they hold over Luton.

With this being the determining factor of the game - while also acknowledging Santo's pragmatic nature - don't be surprised if the visitors go five at the back for only the fifth time this season, with either Hudson-Odoi or Elanga playing off Chris Wood up front.

After all, why take chances, even when only the avoidance of a miracle is necessary.

chris wood.jpg

Not that too much caution is required. The Clarets have only scored eight from their last 10 home games, oddly reserving their best and most spirited performances for away days. Here at least the pressure has been lifted while pertinently it's their last chance to prove a point.

Still, a low-scoring affair awaits, and the same goes for corners too.

Forest have averaged 3.9 per 90 all season with Burnley faring little better.

Chelsea v Bournemouth - May massacre

Transformed in recent weeks, Chelsea would gladly take an extension to 2023/24, lying second in the form table and finding the net with increasing regularity.

Mauricio Pochettino's high-flyers have scored 2+ goals in 11 of their last 12 contests. In two of their last three at the Bridge they have spanked sides 5+ goals to nil.

All of which takes us away from Bournemouth's unpredictable late-season showings, and away even from Cole Palmer's ridiculous stats. For the record, the 22-year-old has scored or assisted every 79 minutes in the league this term, every 63 minutes since late-December.

Instead, the nature of final days comes into play, with a 5-0 drubbing evident in each of Chelsea's last four curtain calls. Mid-table Wolves were the unfortunate recipients last May. Mid-table Everton in 2021.

Could the mid-table Cherries be next to reluctantly join this club? For all their positives since Iraola took the reins, Bournemouth have yet to beat a current top six side this term, to an aggregate scoreline of 31-5.

Elsewhere, the hosts feel nailed on to pick up the most cards. After all, Chelsea have broken a Premier League record this season for the number of cautions received.

Now read Premier League Final Day Betting: Title race latest, top six finish and more

Listen to Football...Only Bettor EPL final day special

Recommended bets

New Customers can get £50 in free bets!

Available to new customers only. Place a £10 bet on the Betfair Sportsbook and you will receive £50 in free bets to use on Bet Builders and Accas! Opt-in here and T&cs apply.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.